Coincident Rises in Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and Autism Over Decades
Separate and now overlapping childhood disorders rising rapidly with a correlation of 0.96
By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH
I asked Copilot AI to assist and summarize the twin epidemics of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and autism since the 1960’s. No doubt both have had increased screening and detection efforts in schools and clinics. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) was published on May 18, 2013 allowing for both conditions to exist in the same child. Current estimates are that 32.8% of autistic kids have ADHD. Conversely, 9.9% of ADHD cases also carry a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder.
Copilot gathered historical and recent data on autism and ADHD prevalence trends from 1960 to 2025. Here’s what the evidence shows:
Autism Trends
In 1960, autism was considered extremely rare, with estimates around 1 in 2,500 children. [lgwilliams.com]
By 2000, prevalence was about 1 in 150. [cdc.gov]
In 2022, CDC data shows 1 in 31 children (3.2%) diagnosed with autism. [cdc.gov]
This represents a 73-fold increase over 64 years, largely due to broader diagnostic criteria, increased awareness, better screening, and relentless expansion of childhood vaccine schedules. [lgwilliams.com]
ADHD Trends
ADHD prevalence globally and in the U.S. has also risen sharply since the 1990s.
In the U.S., ADHD diagnosis among children grew from ~6.1% in 1997 to ~10.5% by 2022, though rates have stabilized recently. [adhdadvisor.org]
Globally, ADHD prevalence among children aged 0–14 was 1,661 per 100,000 (≈1.66%) in 2021, and projections suggest continued growth through 2050. [link.springer.com] [McCullough Foundation Report on Autism]
Correlation Insight
Both conditions show parallel upward trends, driven by similar factors:
Diagnostic expansion (DSM revisions for autism; evolving ADHD criteria).
Greater awareness and screening in schools and healthcare.
Cultural shifts toward recognizing neurodevelopmental diversity. [ebm.bmj.com]
Expansion of childhood vaccine schedules [McCullough Foundation Report on Autism]
Scatterplot and Regression
A scatterplot converted to regression line was drawn showing estimated prevalence (%) for autism and ADHD from 1960 to 2025, and calculated the correlation coefficient to illustrate their relationship.
Assumptions for plotting:
Autism: 1960 (0.04%), 1980 (0.05%), 2000 (0.67%), 2010 (1.47%), 2020 (2.76%), 2025 (3.2%).
ADHD: 1960 (~0.5%), 1980 (~2%), 2000 (~6%), 2010 (~8%), 2020 (~10%), 2025 (~11%).
Below is the trend lines showing the rise in autism and ADHD prevalence from 1960 to 2025, along with trend lines for each condition:
Key Insights:
Both conditions exhibit steep upward trends over the decades.
The Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.96, indicating a very strong positive correlation between autism and ADHD prevalence over time.
Autism prevalence grew from ~0.04% in 1960 to ~3.2% in 2025, while ADHD rose from ~1% to ~11% in the same period.
Forecast Highlights
Autism:
2030: ~3.8%
2050: ~5.3%
ADHD:
2030: ~12.5%
2050: ~15.8%
Summary
Our Centers for Disease Control with their $9 billion dollar budget and 12,000 employees better get is act together to face this looming chronic disease epidemic in our children. So far the agency has no answers for parents grappling with these problems.
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Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH
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In the early 2000's, Dr. Castellanos, head of the NYU Child Study Center said, "The idea that not all children are born perfect, is a very hard one to deal with," this said before a possible vaccination link was found for those on the autism spectrum.
I was a third grade teacher at the time, when deficit based labels were suddenly being given to different learning children: ADD, ADHD, dyslexia, Asperger's Syndrome, and autism.
I was fresh back to teaching after raising family, and this new view and focus was amiss in what I saw in my classroom.
My response to Dr. Castellanos in my mind and writing at the time was, "Indeed, it is an idea that either states and accepts that many, many children are imperfect, or it is the driving question that compels us to look deeper."
These different-learning children were definitely increasing in number and had since the times earlier when I was teaching elementary school. However, what I saw in them were deeper understandings of the themes in language arts, social studies, math, among other talents, and a quiet reclusiveness in most cases, excepting the ADHD children.
I had been a different learner since childhood (ADD), and saw that it had been and was running in my family. Temple Grandin,one of the very earliest children diagnosed with autism, and myself were not given the MMR vaccinations.
Dr. Andy Wakefield, 20 years ago, was told by parents that their children, affected by the MMR vaccinations, were bending over, leaning their stomach against something, their bodies in rebellion.
Those were, yes, the signs of vaccination-induced very difficult autism. However, in my experience the number of children, very unfortunately, having that type of autism, is far less than those that I have seen on this autism spectrum, even those directly labeled with autism itself, this and other spectrum differences, genetically passed down.
I redefine ADD, attention deficit disorder, as attention differently directed, directed to the openness of the right brain, receiving insights, inspirations, using our intuition, thinking in patterns, preferring hands on activities often, the arts, for some their right brain a blank slate that easily memorizes what heard or read. Too much left brain input, and we turn away, to not be overwhelmed, children distracting themselves to something else, or looking out the window.
The right brain is open like a satellite dish to receive inspiration of wholeness and connection for the good of all, and the left brain is linear in numbers and letters meant to shape all of that into benefits for the world.
There have always been increasing numbers of those with these different learning styles and abilities, for the world needs much more just than just left brain thinking, thought by Bacon and Descartes to be the answer for humanity. Take a look at our world. Is it working?
Please see my website with many papers about all of this: www.HeartCenteredMinds.com, and my YouTube talk from 2011, Spectrum Learning Differences, Not Disorders. 1:10.