Into the Escalation Trap

Decades ago, Professor Robert Pape had a clear vision of the Iranian disaster, and he warned against the escalation trap into which President Trump is falling.

Throughout history, men who have enjoyed uncontested wealth and power have fallen into the trap of overestimating their ability to control other people, and to obtain their desired outcomes through coercion.

I think of Persia’s (Xerxes’s) invasion of Greece in 480 BC, Athen’s (under Alcibiades) expedition to conquer Sicily in 415 BC, the Roman attempted conquest (under Varus) of Germania AD 9, Spain’s (Philip II) attempt to conquer England in 1588, France’s (Napoleon) attempt to conquer Russia in 1812, France’s (Napoleon III) attempt to subdue Prussia in 1870, Germany’s (Hitler) attempt to conquer Russia in 1941, and the US attempts to subdue North Korea in 1950-51, to contain North Vietnam (1965-68) and to secure various ill-defined objectives in Afghanistan (2001-21).

All these conflicts began with particular men overestimating their power to obtain a desired outcome by coercing other people. Overestimation of their own ability was accompanied by underestimation of their adversary’s ability, resolve, home advantage, and geography.

Those who fall into the escalation trap are typically men who suffer from arrogance and hubris, and a corresponding lack of respect for their adversaries.

They also underestimate how conflict itself—and the hard feelings aroused by it—may dramatically change the nature and destructiveness of the conflict.

We see this dynamic in high-conflict divorces that get dragged out for years, emotionally ruin both spouses, traumatize the children, and divert millions to divorce attorneys.

Professor Robert A. Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, has devoted his career to studying what he calls the Escalation Trap. In 1996, he published his seminal book, Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War.

Professor Pape’s theory of the escalation trap explains why limited military operations—especially those relying on airstrikes or targeted decapitation—usually expand into broader, more costly conflicts that leaders never envisioned.

The Escalation Trap arises from a mismatch between military tactics and political realities. Stage One begins with the temptation to apply limited force: precision-guided munitions and leadership strikes create an illusion that the adversary is being coerced. Bombs hit their targets with remarkable accuracy, enemy commanders are eliminated, and infrastructure is destroyed. These tactical victories foster overconfidence.

Unfortunately, these “shock and awe” tactical exploits rarely deliver the desired political outcomes. Regimes do not collapse. Instead, external attack often hardens nationalist resolve. The experience of being bombed causes extremely hard feelings and a desire for revenge.

This leads to Stage Two. When the adversary refuses to concede and instead retaliates—often through “horizontal escalation” (widening the conflict geographically, economically, and politically. Now the aggressor is faced with a dilemma. He believes he should double down with more strikes because retreat would seem weak and humiliating.

Stage Three commits to irreversible escalation, potentially to ground operations or protracted aerial containment. Once reputations, resources, and domestic politics are invested, de-escalation becomes politically disastrous.

The more arrogant and hubristic the leadership of the aggressor, the greater the likelihood of Stage Three escalation, which will almost certainly have a host of immensely destructive consequences.

Pape has identified several examples of the US falling into the Escalation Trap — the mission in Vietnam that blew up into a decade-long war; NATO’s 1999 Kosovo air campaign that required ground-threat brinkmanship after 78 days; and today’s Iran conflict, where initial “textbook” strikes produced regime hardening instead of surrender.

Professor Pape is currently talking to anyone who will listen about the disaster that likely awaits all of mankind if President Trump enters Stage Three of the escalation trap with Iran.

There is a strong selective process that results in certain kinds of men and women coming to power— a selective process that favors aggressiveness, self-assertiveness, and high confidence. Unless these qualities are tempered by conscientiousness, empathy, and a strong sense of responsibility to others, such leaders are susceptible to falling into the Escalation Trap that Professor Pape describes.

It’s also a tragic feature of the human condition that those rare individuals who learn from the mistakes of the past and achieve wisdom are often unable to impart their wisdom to younger generations. This results in mankind making the same mistakes over and over again.

This is what Schopenhauer meant when he described “the Will” as a blind force in human affairs that is unconstrained by reason and prudence. As the Joker says in the 2008 film Batman Dark Knight.

Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I caught it! You know, I just... do things.

Those interested in learning more about Professor Robert Pape’s reflections on the Escalation Trap should check out the following recent interview.