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Bob Filice MD's avatar

Excellent exposition of the broader context. Keep it coming John.

AwakeNotWoke's avatar

Thanks to POTUS Trump and Hegseth the economies of many countries are never going to recover, even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened tomorrow.

The pre-war world is just a dream. 

POTUS Trump and Hegseth have engaged in an act of economic self-sabotage that will ultimately hurt the U.S. and the global economy. The problem is that the damage is already done. Regardless of what the U.S. does, a new multimillion dollar toll system imposed on the Strait of Hormuz by Iran will remain in place and countries will have to factor it into oil prices.

Quoting one accomplished banker and economist:

“Iran has discovered that they are actually the global oil hegemon overnight by accident."

“We haven’t even begun to see them leverage this as a weapon. Not only now, but in the years to come."

"If hostilities ceased tomorrow on terms Iran found favourable, it would take years for the global economy to stabilise to the new normal; whatever that new normal Iran decides it should be.”

"There is 'no going back' to the free navigation previously seen in the Strait of Hormuz — even if the US undertakes a ground invasion, which would almost certainly fail."

"[T]he world must learn to live with higher oil prices and their effect on inflation.

If the global oil price stays in its current price range ($US100 per barrel), the result will be a 'prolonged inflationary shock' [and] if it goes above $US150 a barrel businesses are going to be shuttering and there’s going to be a recession”.

"A major blow from the war will be long-term damage to the US dollar and the broader Western financial system.

'Overnight, Iran is basically trying to move the world from the petrodollar to a (Chinese) Yuan-backed oil' ... That’s an ominous sign, because it threatens the dollar’s status as the reserve currency of the world and ultimately, the ability of the US government to pay down its $39 trillion debt."

"[I]f global reliance on the dollar wanes, demand for US debt will drop, forcing the US government to offer much higher interest rates.

This chain reaction would ultimately make borrowing more expensive for American businesses and consumers and weaken the dollar’s purchasing power, leading to more expensive imports and higher inflation."

"Ultimately ... the pre-war global economy is fading into an unrecoverable memory, and the world could be paying the cost of the Iran war for years to come, whether it’s denominated in dollars or not."

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