The Hot Zone: Bird Flu
Analyzing initial reports from the Texas Panhandle
Yesterday, April 9, the WHO issued a report titled Avian Influenza A(H5N1) - United States of America. Of special concern is an April 1st report that a worker at a dairy farm in the Texas Panhandle has been infected with conjunctivitis (eye infection) after close contact with a dairy cow. We spent the day analyzing these reports.
In this episode of the Hot Zone, we review the literature on Avian Influenza, and we address the conspicuous timing of these events—on the heels of a bunch of chatter within the Bio-Pharmaceutical Complex about Avian Influenza being a threat to humans and the recent development of mRNA vaccines that (we are told) will protect us from it.
Two major questions present themselves:
1). Is Avian Influenza the dread “Disease X” the Bio-Pharmaceutical Complex has recently heralded?
2). Is it reasonable to suspect that Gain-of-Function work has been performed—or is currently being performed—to make H5N1 readily transmissible to and contagious among humans?
Imagine a scenario in which H5N1 has been modified in a lab to make it readily infectious to humans and capable of community spread. Now imagine that this GoF modified strain escapes—accidentally or deliberately—from a lab within the context of the natural pathogen spreading among livestock.
We are NOT predicting that such a scenario will come to pass, but we want to be mindful of the possibility that it could and therefore pay close attention to how this story develops in the coming days and weeks.
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Oh come on! Conjunctivitis after working in a barn. It’s spring. There’s mold in some of the old hay bales. Dust and dirt everywhere. I got itchy eyes and conjunctivitis every now and then when I helped in the horse barns in TX every spring. I don’t know a rancher who hasn’t had itchy, red eyes after cleaning the barn or working their cattle or horses or goats or sheep. Let’s get real and let’s also give this the attention it deserves. The bottom of the manure pile.
If I predict that your house will burn down on a certain day and in a certain way, and my prophesy comes true, and then police find the exact materials used in my garage, how quickly would I go to jail?