I'm grateful to John for finally publicizing this situation, which is utterly absent from the mainstream and most of the "alternative" media.
What he didn't mention is that the issue is not so much gasoline (which comes from "sweet" crude of which the U.S. is a major source, though it doesn't have a lot of refinery capacity for it), but rather of diesel and aviation fuel, which comes from "sour" crude, which is what is being drawn down from the SPR. We've imported sour crude from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Russia, and the Mideast, the latter two (now unavailable) contributing a major share.
The fact that the SPR, which was trying to make up for that to keep supply up and prices down, is now about "out of gas" on that front means that the two main energy supports for commerce — diesel and jet fuel — are about to run seriously short in the short term, aggravated by Trump's restarting the war and military aviation having priority for jet fuel.
Little or very expensive transportation for food, fuel, and commodities will be causing us SERIOUS hurt, very soon. I've tried to lay this out at https://dickatlee.com/oil .
I know you hate Trump but I think your loathing pushes you to fear monger the coming apocalypse. Global energy production, supply, transportation and refining is much more resilient than the absolute SPR level.
Time will be the test, as we get the ultimate stress test here. It's baked in now. It's actually worse than the doctor portrays. Everything is now at "tank bottom", which means while the SAY the SPR still has 300 million barrels, they can't pump any more out without wrecking the equipment on the bottom sludge. So I expect shortages soon.
I’ve enjoyed Mr. Leake’s writing over the last few years and often forwarded his columns to friends. However, as he’s become disenchanted with Trump, the quality of his writing seems to have declined. It’s difficult to take seriously an article that characterizes the current administration as “psychopathic clowns”. I’m looking for sober, insightful commentary from Mr. Leake. This hardly qualifies. Additionally, I find the very premise of the piece misguided. The United States is currently a net exporter of petroleum products. When you take into account crude imports from Canada, which have nowhere else to go, the US is also a net exporter of crude. This country will not “face a marked reduction of available fuel products” anytime soon. Petroleum products may become more expensive because the global market sets the price for commodities. However, they will remain plentiful as long as the US remains in a position of excess crude supply and excess refining capacity.
Pointless war with Iran. For perspective, ask the following question: how large would the petroleum reserve have to be if Iran had nukes and launched them against all the countries in the middle east that they have already attacked? Add in a nuclear retaliation by Israel and most of the middle eastern oil production capacity would be permanently removed.
One answer would be to niavely believe the IRG would use them only as a deterent. However, once a missle is launched there is no way to determine the type of warhead it carries, which is why Russia tells the US in advance when it launches an ICBM with conventional warheafs at Ukraine.
IMO Iran cannot be trusted or believed because of the Muslim Quran approved tactic of the righteousness of lying to advance Islam.
Once you cross the use nuclear weapons threshold, the fallout, yes real fallout, will encircle the world, rain will destroy crops and water supplies, making survival impossible for most of the inhabitants. The cloud cover, like that of an erupting volcano will black out the sun causing the earth to cool rapidly. The best place to be in a nuclear war is under a direct hit, because you will eventually die from its effects, so dying in the initial blast will save you from all the suffering. Trump is no fool, the only real fear he has is nuclear war because he knows how it ends. One nuke in Iranian hands will be used to kill little satan and little satan will turn Iran into dust, and then Russia will be justified to use them in Ukraine and God help us all. Nuclear War and Iran getting a nuclear capability must never be allowed or we’re all doomed. Nuclear War will only take a matter of minutes to play out and it will be all over, maybe a few retaliatory strikes on autopilot from subs undersea, but all over in less than a few hours. And then the suffering begins. And this is what the goal of Iran has always been, to bring on Armageddon. If they wanted peace, they’ve had many off roads to this conflict, but each has been met with escalation not compromise. Nuclear use is total insanity!
If someone has Trump derangement syndrome it makes it clear that there's no point paying attention to what they say. They refer to current Administration is psychopathic clowns but the unnecessary drawdown and unwillingness to refill with cheaper oil under the bite in the magistration just passing by. If I see something by John Leake we know who we're dealing with.
I was going to write my own reply until I read yours...perfect summary. Leake has a severe case of TDS, when he should focus on what most readers are here for...
Maybe Leake should apply his research of repurposed drugs to curing TDS and he would benefit directly. It appears he is really using this platform for his own political opines... I take what he says as further proof that if he is as deranged as his writings, he doesn't belong anywhere near the research lab. When someone is this delusional, trust is lost across the board...
"... As soon as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve draws down, thereby removing the buffer, this country will face a marked reduction of available fuel products,..."
Some people say, we produce more oil than any other nation.
Psychotic clowns, will be the ones, overseeing a complete draw down.
Trump isn't a clown. Ask Maduro or the IRGC leadership.
Implying a complete draw down is plausible, is fear porn, imo.
Obviously, your case of TDS is reaching epic proportions and is most likely incurable at this stage. When delusion is expressed like yours, the only hope is medical and psychological treatment for you. Make sure you get that 8th booster, it's ready for you!
If I am reading this correctly, the US industrial food system is a major energy consumer mostly diesel for transport of inputs and products to converters then distributed nationwide. Add in airlines burning jet fuel, the next few months May show signs of shortages on store shelves. This 6-week war is now 6 months and not as promoted, more of a 13th century religious conflict than businessmen doing any deal.
From a broad brush stroke perspective (observing many niches of life, world influences), I know many issues/circumstances change over years and decades, sometimes in very big ways.
With the oil availability issues concerning the USA, it has recently been reported that the USA should be able to produce sufficient oil to supply normal demands within the USA, without the need to import oil reserves.
This point should have been an important point to cover in this article, as to the true validity of the oil supply in the USA. Historically, the reporting of oil supply and extraction in the USA has been obfuscated and misleading for many reasons, both international and domestic.
If, indeed, the USA is currently self sufficient in oil supplies, the historical impressions that past shortages made upon the American psyche about the dangers If oil (energy) shortages do not apply at this time.
Examining the truth of the current oil reserves and refining capacity within the USA is a pertinent data point to consider in an article like this.
One other consideration in "energy" needs and usage we all should be aware of (and do some research on) is that there are new energy sources and technologies very close to coming online that will greatly reduce, and potentially negate, the need to extract oil to convert to energy to run not only the USA, but the entire world.
There has always been a focus on scarcity by the industrial giants as that is a control factor that the industry uses to extract maximum profits from a mislead and unaware public.
MY YOUNGEST BROTHER KARL FANDRICH WORKING FOR SUNCOR IN OAKVILLE ONTARIO CANADA 🇨🇦 AND CALGARY ALBERTA CANADA 🇨🇦 ORIGINALLY WAS CALLED PETRO CANADA 🇨🇦.
I realize that you dislike Trump immensely, but I think you still need to point the finger at the prior administration. This article cites the governments' own data:
Yes, Trump's administration has drawn down on the SPR, but he inherited an extremely low inventory due primarily to the Biden administration's sale of huge quantities to Ukraine. Yes, we may be headed for a bumpy road, but US production is still ramping up (after being shut down, again under the prior administration). That said, I don't see a rosy picture, but I don't buy your gloom and doom either.
Canada has significant available and untapped supply to buy from. Canada should be using that as leverage against tariffs. In any case, fuel shortage won't be a problem for at least 100 years.
I'm grateful to John for finally publicizing this situation, which is utterly absent from the mainstream and most of the "alternative" media.
What he didn't mention is that the issue is not so much gasoline (which comes from "sweet" crude of which the U.S. is a major source, though it doesn't have a lot of refinery capacity for it), but rather of diesel and aviation fuel, which comes from "sour" crude, which is what is being drawn down from the SPR. We've imported sour crude from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Russia, and the Mideast, the latter two (now unavailable) contributing a major share.
The fact that the SPR, which was trying to make up for that to keep supply up and prices down, is now about "out of gas" on that front means that the two main energy supports for commerce — diesel and jet fuel — are about to run seriously short in the short term, aggravated by Trump's restarting the war and military aviation having priority for jet fuel.
Little or very expensive transportation for food, fuel, and commodities will be causing us SERIOUS hurt, very soon. I've tried to lay this out at https://dickatlee.com/oil .
I know you hate Trump but I think your loathing pushes you to fear monger the coming apocalypse. Global energy production, supply, transportation and refining is much more resilient than the absolute SPR level.
Time will be the test, as we get the ultimate stress test here. It's baked in now. It's actually worse than the doctor portrays. Everything is now at "tank bottom", which means while the SAY the SPR still has 300 million barrels, they can't pump any more out without wrecking the equipment on the bottom sludge. So I expect shortages soon.
Just facts.
I’ve enjoyed Mr. Leake’s writing over the last few years and often forwarded his columns to friends. However, as he’s become disenchanted with Trump, the quality of his writing seems to have declined. It’s difficult to take seriously an article that characterizes the current administration as “psychopathic clowns”. I’m looking for sober, insightful commentary from Mr. Leake. This hardly qualifies. Additionally, I find the very premise of the piece misguided. The United States is currently a net exporter of petroleum products. When you take into account crude imports from Canada, which have nowhere else to go, the US is also a net exporter of crude. This country will not “face a marked reduction of available fuel products” anytime soon. Petroleum products may become more expensive because the global market sets the price for commodities. However, they will remain plentiful as long as the US remains in a position of excess crude supply and excess refining capacity.
Precisely. It’s almost as if he is trying to present a strawman to the gullible.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best I suppose. Go out and get some gas cans.
Somebody says you can ignore reality, but you can't escape the consequences of ignoring reality.
Pointless war with Iran. For perspective, ask the following question: how large would the petroleum reserve have to be if Iran had nukes and launched them against all the countries in the middle east that they have already attacked? Add in a nuclear retaliation by Israel and most of the middle eastern oil production capacity would be permanently removed.
One answer would be to niavely believe the IRG would use them only as a deterent. However, once a missle is launched there is no way to determine the type of warhead it carries, which is why Russia tells the US in advance when it launches an ICBM with conventional warheafs at Ukraine.
IMO Iran cannot be trusted or believed because of the Muslim Quran approved tactic of the righteousness of lying to advance Islam.
Dick Minnis removingthecataract.substack.com
Once you cross the use nuclear weapons threshold, the fallout, yes real fallout, will encircle the world, rain will destroy crops and water supplies, making survival impossible for most of the inhabitants. The cloud cover, like that of an erupting volcano will black out the sun causing the earth to cool rapidly. The best place to be in a nuclear war is under a direct hit, because you will eventually die from its effects, so dying in the initial blast will save you from all the suffering. Trump is no fool, the only real fear he has is nuclear war because he knows how it ends. One nuke in Iranian hands will be used to kill little satan and little satan will turn Iran into dust, and then Russia will be justified to use them in Ukraine and God help us all. Nuclear War and Iran getting a nuclear capability must never be allowed or we’re all doomed. Nuclear War will only take a matter of minutes to play out and it will be all over, maybe a few retaliatory strikes on autopilot from subs undersea, but all over in less than a few hours. And then the suffering begins. And this is what the goal of Iran has always been, to bring on Armageddon. If they wanted peace, they’ve had many off roads to this conflict, but each has been met with escalation not compromise. Nuclear use is total insanity!
If someone has Trump derangement syndrome it makes it clear that there's no point paying attention to what they say. They refer to current Administration is psychopathic clowns but the unnecessary drawdown and unwillingness to refill with cheaper oil under the bite in the magistration just passing by. If I see something by John Leake we know who we're dealing with.
I was going to write my own reply until I read yours...perfect summary. Leake has a severe case of TDS, when he should focus on what most readers are here for...
Maybe Leake should apply his research of repurposed drugs to curing TDS and he would benefit directly. It appears he is really using this platform for his own political opines... I take what he says as further proof that if he is as deranged as his writings, he doesn't belong anywhere near the research lab. When someone is this delusional, trust is lost across the board...
"... As soon as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve draws down, thereby removing the buffer, this country will face a marked reduction of available fuel products,..."
Some people say, we produce more oil than any other nation.
Psychotic clowns, will be the ones, overseeing a complete draw down.
Trump isn't a clown. Ask Maduro or the IRGC leadership.
Implying a complete draw down is plausible, is fear porn, imo.
yes, ALL THANKS TO TRUMP, a billionaire carrying ONLY about himself, his family and 'special' friends, and NOT ABOUT YOU, the average citizen...
Obviously, your case of TDS is reaching epic proportions and is most likely incurable at this stage. When delusion is expressed like yours, the only hope is medical and psychological treatment for you. Make sure you get that 8th booster, it's ready for you!
If I am reading this correctly, the US industrial food system is a major energy consumer mostly diesel for transport of inputs and products to converters then distributed nationwide. Add in airlines burning jet fuel, the next few months May show signs of shortages on store shelves. This 6-week war is now 6 months and not as promoted, more of a 13th century religious conflict than businessmen doing any deal.
From a broad brush stroke perspective (observing many niches of life, world influences), I know many issues/circumstances change over years and decades, sometimes in very big ways.
With the oil availability issues concerning the USA, it has recently been reported that the USA should be able to produce sufficient oil to supply normal demands within the USA, without the need to import oil reserves.
This point should have been an important point to cover in this article, as to the true validity of the oil supply in the USA. Historically, the reporting of oil supply and extraction in the USA has been obfuscated and misleading for many reasons, both international and domestic.
If, indeed, the USA is currently self sufficient in oil supplies, the historical impressions that past shortages made upon the American psyche about the dangers If oil (energy) shortages do not apply at this time.
Examining the truth of the current oil reserves and refining capacity within the USA is a pertinent data point to consider in an article like this.
One other consideration in "energy" needs and usage we all should be aware of (and do some research on) is that there are new energy sources and technologies very close to coming online that will greatly reduce, and potentially negate, the need to extract oil to convert to energy to run not only the USA, but the entire world.
There has always been a focus on scarcity by the industrial giants as that is a control factor that the industry uses to extract maximum profits from a mislead and unaware public.
MY YOUNGEST BROTHER KARL FANDRICH WORKING FOR SUNCOR IN OAKVILLE ONTARIO CANADA 🇨🇦 AND CALGARY ALBERTA CANADA 🇨🇦 ORIGINALLY WAS CALLED PETRO CANADA 🇨🇦.
100% agree John!
I pumped gas and diesel at the family business in NJ during the 1973 and 1979 crisis' and lines where backed up for miles.
We lived in very depraved times, though it doesn't seem much different from an anthropologically distant past.
https://www.thenewera.uk/p/rigid-institutions
I realize that you dislike Trump immensely, but I think you still need to point the finger at the prior administration. This article cites the governments' own data:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Fact-Checking-the-Biden-Administrations-SPR-Narrative.html
Yes, Trump's administration has drawn down on the SPR, but he inherited an extremely low inventory due primarily to the Biden administration's sale of huge quantities to Ukraine. Yes, we may be headed for a bumpy road, but US production is still ramping up (after being shut down, again under the prior administration). That said, I don't see a rosy picture, but I don't buy your gloom and doom either.
My .02 worth.
Elizabeth Falconer, FOrt Worth
Canada has significant available and untapped supply to buy from. Canada should be using that as leverage against tariffs. In any case, fuel shortage won't be a problem for at least 100 years.