I'm grateful to John for finally publicizing this situation, which is utterly absent from the mainstream and most of the "alternative" media.
What he didn't mention is that the issue is not so much gasoline (which comes from "sweet" crude of which the U.S. is a major source, though it doesn't have a lot of refinery capacity for it), but rather of diesel and aviation fuel, which comes from "sour" crude, which is what is being drawn down from the SPR. We've imported sour crude from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Russia, and the Mideast, the latter two (now unavailable) contributing a major share.
The fact that the SPR, which was trying to make up for that to keep supply up and prices down, is now about "out of gas" on that front means that the two main energy supports for commerce — diesel and jet fuel — are about to run seriously short in the short term, aggravated by Trump's restarting the war and military aviation having priority for jet fuel.
Little or very expensive transportation for food, fuel, and commodities will be causing us SERIOUS hurt, very soon. I've tried to lay this out at https://dickatlee.com/oil .
This comment is incorrect. It is a gross simplification to suggest that gasoline comes from sweet crude and distillate (diesel, jet fuel, etc.) comes from sour crude. In fact all crudes (light, heavy, sweet, sour and various blends) can be refined into gasoline and distillate, but it’s true that the light, sweet crudes have a smaller distillate cut. American currently imports about six million barrels of heavy and/or sour crude and about 70% of that comes from Canada, which has no real ability to ship its crude anywhere other than the U.S. The U.S. exports well over a million barrels per day of distillate. If it were to lose the heavy/sour crude imports from countries other than Canada, the U.S. would still produce more than enough distillate for its own needs, but would reduce exports to other countries. In other words, there is almost no possibility of a petroleum product shortage in the U.S.A.
Yes, you can get diesel/aviation from sweet crude, but you have to have a refinery configured to do that. That reconfiguration can't be done short term, and the vast majority of U.S. refineries were built to handle sour crude rather than sweet, simply because it is more profitable. We can't turn on a dime.
The fact that the Energy Secretary decided on March 11 to start drawing significant sour crude from the SPR indicates that at least he disagrees with you about the impossibility of a petroleum product shortage in the U.S. Odd, also, that Trump signed the Iranian Memorandum of Understanding (which he hated, and immediately violated) a day after he declared that we would be running out of diesel/jet fuel in 4 weeks. His behavior since then hasn't been consistent with that, which isn't surprising, but he was definitely aware we have a problem. Sure, Canada supplies sour crude; I'm not aware of that 70% number, but if correct, what do you suppose the significance of losing 30% of our supply of diesel/jet fuel will be for a cascade in prices in this country?
Good luck with what will be coming down the road if you wish to remain blind to the physical reality. I'd rather do whatever I can to be prepared for it.
Carney PM of Canada is looking to build a pipeline to the west coast to ship crude to China etc. Some think that is great for Canada's economy. My concern is it is part of Carney's plan to weaken the US by depriving them of crude input to US refineries.
I’m no fan of Carney, but it would be a good thing for Canada to have alternate outlets for its crude oil. Carney and the government would have very little influence on where oil exports go. The producing companies decide who they sell production to. The problem today is that there is no means of getting any production growth to market, so companies are returning cash to shareholders via share buybacks rather than investing in growth. Additional pipelines to anywhere (USA, East Coast Canada or West Coast Canada) would be a welcome development.
Again, you’ve completely misrepresented the state of the industry. You don’t have to reconfigure a refinery in order to make distillate from sweet crude. Sweet crude refineries have always produced a range of products, including gasoline and distillate. Also your focus on sweet versus sour is misleading. A better characterization would be light versus heavy. Heavy and sour refining capacity was not built because it’s more profitable; it was built to accommodate the types of crude that were available. As refiners anticipated the decline of light, sweet crude (prior to the fracking revolution), they upgraded refineries to process heavier, sour crudes like those from the Canadian Oil Sands and Venezuela. Currently the US imports about 6 million barrels a day of heavy and/or sour crudes. 2/3 of that comes from Canada and they don’t really have any means of shipping the crude elsewhere so it has to go to the US. The US is currently a net exporter of distillates to the tune of 1.3 million barrels a day. In other words, even if no heavy and/or sour crude other than the Canadian crude were available to the US, US refiners would still produce more than enough distillate to meet our own needs. We’d simply have to reduce exports. There is no prospect of a shortage of petroleum products in the United States. If there’s a global shortage, our prices will rise because petroleum products are a commodity and the global market sets the price, but supply will not be an issue.
If that's the case, what was the motivation for instituting a policy of significant heavy/sour crude drawdown from the SPR, with attendant risk of loss of cavern integrity, if we have more than enough for our own needs?
The drawdowns from the SPR are not that significant. They are a fraction of what was drawn down by the Biden administration at the beginning of the Ukraine war, purely in order to dampen international oil pricing and its inflationary effects on U.S. fuel prices in advance of the midterm elections. I expect the modest drawdowns since the beginning of the Iraq war are to help smooth out the tiny percentage of US heavy oil imports that come from Iraq, Saudi, etc. Given that the U.S. is a net exporter of nearly 3 million barrels per day of petroleum products, there is no possibility of products running short if crude supply is marginally diminished. U.S. refiners would simply cut crude runs slightly and reduce product exports.
I know you hate Trump but I think your loathing pushes you to fear monger the coming apocalypse. Global energy production, supply, transportation and refining is much more resilient than the absolute SPR level.
Time will be the test, as we get the ultimate stress test here. It's baked in now. It's actually worse than the doctor portrays. Everything is now at "tank bottom", which means while the SAY the SPR still has 300 million barrels, they can't pump any more out without wrecking the equipment on the bottom sludge. So I expect shortages soon.
John doesn't hate Trump. John is rightly critical of Trump, especially since he promised no more endless wars. Trump lied, and that is a big problem. Confidence in leaders, especially presidents, is critical. Mr Trump seems to go out of his way to destroy voter confidence.
Technically, crude oil could surpass its high of $150.00 a barrel and reach into the mid-$200s. That would mean $10.00 a gallon for gasoline, and of course higher prices for all kinds of other petroleum products.
This is not fear mongering; it is reality. Iran is playing a long game of economic chaos for the world and especially in the Middle East. Few understand that when oil hit $6.50 a barrel during COVID, the producing nations borrowed heavily. People think the Middle East is flush with oil revenue, but when that revenue dries up, servicing debt becomes a critical issue. Iran is disrupting producers' ability to sell oil, which could cause a severe banking crisis and a sovereign debt default. Iranians are not simple-minded people; they are highly educated.
This war, started by Trump and Netanyahu, could lead to an economic disaster for the US. Each day it escalates to greater violence means Mr Trump is digging a hole that cannot be filled. Power alone does not win conflicts, as even General George Washington demonstrated in our Revolutionary War with Great Britain.
I am pretty sure that most war supporters, like yourself, would be very critical of President Obama or Biden for acting in the same manner as Mr Trump.
Nice try. You know nothing about me. Iran is a 50 year BAD actor. Their comeuppance is way overdue. The sooner they are off the world stage, the better for EVERYBODY, including their own citizens.
Let’s see. We over threw their duly elected leader in 1956/1957, and installed the Shah. How would you feel if another country did that to one of our presidents elected by the people? That caused the revolution in 1979. If we’d kept our noses out of their country, just as we would like others to stay out of ours, all of the turmoil of the last 50 years would have never happened.
That’s why our occupied government keeps the facts hidden from the madses. It’s also why Trump did not release “all information on the JFK assassination”, as he promised to do when he campaigned in 2016. When the time to unseal it came, he made sure that it was kept classified. He has a habit of promising things when campaigning, JFK assassination, ending the war in Ukraine, not getting us into other wars, etc., that he does not keep. That makes him just another lying politician that really does not give a hoot about the citizens.
Iran didn’t invade other countries. We ate tones who invade other countries. And if you were unaware of the IS overthrowing Iran’s elected leader, then you are either too young to remember, or you drink the kool-aid the media has been putting out, for decades. How many jabs and boosters did you take? After all, the media never lies. Right?
So again, what would your response be to having other countries pushing their desires on the US? What would your response be if a foreign country had come in, say February of 2025 and thrown Trump out, and installed who they said you could have, instead? Because this is what the US did to Iran. Do you think we would have revolted, like the Iranians did in 1979?
There are a lot of bad actors. Does that mean the US should drop billions of dollars, have US military personnel killed and maimed, and destroy civilians?
There is no logic, no strategy- just bomb the bad guys. That strategy has never worked even once! We are still paying interest on WW 1 and WWII. Over half of our national debt is because of inane wars. These wars destroy nations and economies, and that's why our founders wanted no part of them.
I’ve enjoyed Mr. Leake’s writing over the last few years and often forwarded his columns to friends. However, as he’s become disenchanted with Trump, the quality of his writing seems to have declined. It’s difficult to take seriously an article that characterizes the current administration as “psychopathic clowns”. I’m looking for sober, insightful commentary from Mr. Leake. This hardly qualifies. Additionally, I find the very premise of the piece misguided. The United States is currently a net exporter of petroleum products. When you take into account crude imports from Canada, which have nowhere else to go, the US is also a net exporter of crude. This country will not “face a marked reduction of available fuel products” anytime soon. Petroleum products may become more expensive because the global market sets the price for commodities. However, they will remain plentiful as long as the US remains in a position of excess crude supply and excess refining capacity.
If someone has Trump derangement syndrome it makes it clear that there's no point paying attention to what they say. They refer to current Administration is psychopathic clowns but the unnecessary drawdown and unwillingness to refill with cheaper oil under the bite in the magistration just passing by. If I see something by John Leake we know who we're dealing with.
I was going to write my own reply until I read yours...perfect summary. Leake has a severe case of TDS, when he should focus on what most readers are here for...
Maybe Leake should apply his research of repurposed drugs to curing TDS and he would benefit directly. It appears he is really using this platform for his own political opines... I take what he says as further proof that if he is as deranged as his writings, he doesn't belong anywhere near the research lab. When someone is this delusional, trust is lost across the board...
Occasionally, he publishes an insightful article, which is why I remain subscribed. But I agree with your broader point. One can't reason with someone whose identity is wrapped up in a deeply held opinion. They latch on to whatever reinforces what they already believe while dismissing anything that challenges it. It is the rare individual who fully embraces Socrates and Nietzsche's (to name but two) practice of challenging the beliefs of the self.
TDS is an extraordinarily effective psy-op because it bypasses logic and goes straight for fear and anxiety, the two emotions most easily exploited and most contagious among the herd. Articles like this shows me what the current fear propaganda is. But to see it, you first have to eat a elephant following a long chain of influence back to its source, one that has been shaping and steering public perception for a very long time.
Are there concerns? Yes. But worth noting is there is zero mention of Newsome's regulations causing the shutdowns of the refineries in Cali who deliver a fair portion of what our reserves consist of.
Instead he hyperventilates how our entire economy is permanently dependent on oil with no other options. It's the companion op that insists carbon emissions are an unavoidable death sentence, labels oil as a fossil fuel, and insists that man, not the sun or interstellar energies affect our climate. It stokes the fear and anxiety by "proving" the sky is falling, confirming their 'evilness' while claiming moral high ground.
There is no intellectual honesty here, for if there were, it would mention the other energy policies of this Admin and what opportunities/challenges they will bring.
A quick search on YT, or any search engine, for small modular nuclear reactors will give you an idea of what's unfolding. Our energy sector has been held back for decades by petroleum companies using eco-alarmist Luddites as their mouth pieces, to whom nuclear is a serious competitive threat. They've spent millions buying political influence and funding narratives about their "service" and "virtues".
Under Trump, modular reactor technology is poised to take over thanks to changes in regulations and innovations. Molten salt reactors (MSRs) and related micro-reactor design are only one part of the story, but they're an important one. There are other promising developments as well, such as Hyliion's KARNO generator, but I won't rattle on more than I already have. Anyone who's genuinely curious can dig and find all the dirt and hope they can handle.
I agree. Unfortunately it appears we're seeing a severe case of TDS.
Happy to hear John's arguments and concerns about non-medical issues. But referring to the Trump administration as "The psychopathic clowns who are currently running this country" just undermines readers' trust in what he has to say.
Obviously, your case of TDS is reaching epic proportions and is most likely incurable at this stage. When delusion is expressed like yours, the only hope is medical and psychological treatment for you. Make sure you get that 8th booster, it's ready for you!
I realize that you dislike Trump immensely, but I think you still need to point the finger at the prior administration. This article cites the governments' own data:
Yes, Trump's administration has drawn down on the SPR, but he inherited an extremely low inventory due primarily to the Biden administration's sale of huge quantities to Ukraine. Yes, we may be headed for a bumpy road, but US production is still ramping up (after being shut down, again under the prior administration). That said, I don't see a rosy picture, but I don't buy your gloom and doom either.
Pointless war with Iran. For perspective, ask the following question: how large would the petroleum reserve have to be if Iran had nukes and launched them against all the countries in the middle east that they have already attacked? Add in a nuclear retaliation by Israel and most of the middle eastern oil production capacity would be permanently removed.
One answer would be to niavely believe the IRG would use them only as a deterent. However, once a missle is launched there is no way to determine the type of warhead it carries, which is why Russia tells the US in advance when it launches an ICBM with conventional warheafs at Ukraine.
IMO Iran cannot be trusted or believed because of the Muslim Quran approved tactic of the righteousness of lying to advance Islam.
Once you cross the use nuclear weapons threshold, the fallout, yes real fallout, will encircle the world, rain will destroy crops and water supplies, making survival impossible for most of the inhabitants. The cloud cover, like that of an erupting volcano will black out the sun causing the earth to cool rapidly. The best place to be in a nuclear war is under a direct hit, because you will eventually die from its effects, so dying in the initial blast will save you from all the suffering. Trump is no fool, the only real fear he has is nuclear war because he knows how it ends. One nuke in Iranian hands will be used to kill little satan and little satan will turn Iran into dust, and then Russia will be justified to use them in Ukraine and God help us all. Nuclear War and Iran getting a nuclear capability must never be allowed or we’re all doomed. Nuclear War will only take a matter of minutes to play out and it will be all over, maybe a few retaliatory strikes on autopilot from subs undersea, but all over in less than a few hours. And then the suffering begins. And this is what the goal of Iran has always been, to bring on Armageddon. If they wanted peace, they’ve had many off roads to this conflict, but each has been met with escalation not compromise. Nuclear use is total insanity!
Back then we had full service gas pumps, where the attendant also checked tire air pressure, checked engine oil and water, and cleaned the windshields. Maybe the shortage impacting pricing helped end full-service gas stations.
As I recall it was insurance driven. Insurance companies didn't like self serve gas bars. I rode bike in that era and always wanted to pump my own gas so the attendant didn't slop gas on my gas tank. They always cited insurance for why they wouldn't let me pump my own gas.
The oil crisis allowed the Carter Administration to move aggressively to do the one thing all 20th century Presidents (save for two) cannot stop themselves from indulging in - expanding the size and reach of the Federal Government. By creating the Department of Energy, Carter/Schlesinger established a bureaucracy that required the US petroleum industry to distribute products based upon government fiat, thereby taking the market process the private firms relied upon completely out of the distribution process. Interstate highway stations were required to carry product for which there were few buyers, while metropolitan areas were choked. We have repeatedly relied upon government employees to take decisions based upon their interpretation of equity (or other metaphysical urges) that have nothing to do with reality. Government employees are government employees because there is no place for them in productive society.
I am involved in energy markets for 35 years and met with high level Energy people in many governments around the world. In 2001, before 911, I met with our DOE and told them they still don't have an energy policy and there needs to be a domestic energy policy. There is still not a real one today.
Well most Americans did not say one thing about all the gas and oil leaving our country for distant shores. It has been going on for decades. I wrote my senator about it..received a form letter back..which is bullshit. Now they are trying to get us to buy electric cars to offset the crisis that MAY occur. If y'all have any money..I recommend investing in solid bicycles and horses.
Yes to that! My auto mechanic wants me to keep my car because the new ones have engins that wear out quickly on certain terrains and the electrical systems are ridiculous to work on. Even with the plug in systems to show where the problem is.
And don’t think for a minute that any of these draw downs are for “we the people”. They are not, never will be. We have been selling oil to the Chinese since this war started, as well as to other countries. The decisions about drawing down the SPR are made by the powers that be for their own political purposes and money interests. None of it has anything to do with American drivers.
If I am reading this correctly, the US industrial food system is a major energy consumer mostly diesel for transport of inputs and products to converters then distributed nationwide. Add in airlines burning jet fuel, the next few months May show signs of shortages on store shelves. This 6-week war is now 6 months and not as promoted, more of a 13th century religious conflict than businessmen doing any deal.
"... As soon as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve draws down, thereby removing the buffer, this country will face a marked reduction of available fuel products,..."
Some people say, we produce more oil than any other nation.
Psychotic clowns, will be the ones, overseeing a complete draw down.
Trump isn't a clown. Ask Maduro or the IRGC leadership.
Implying a complete draw down is plausible, is fear porn, imo.
I agree with you, John Leake, that a catastrophic energy shock is inevitable. It has been planned by the folks that "print money out of thin air". Nothing new, same old playbook. The BIS and all of the central bankers are gleeful at this intended turn of events, right on schedule. It is not Trump's doing. Those, lurking for years in the shadows, are turning up the pressure.
I'm grateful to John for finally publicizing this situation, which is utterly absent from the mainstream and most of the "alternative" media.
What he didn't mention is that the issue is not so much gasoline (which comes from "sweet" crude of which the U.S. is a major source, though it doesn't have a lot of refinery capacity for it), but rather of diesel and aviation fuel, which comes from "sour" crude, which is what is being drawn down from the SPR. We've imported sour crude from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Russia, and the Mideast, the latter two (now unavailable) contributing a major share.
The fact that the SPR, which was trying to make up for that to keep supply up and prices down, is now about "out of gas" on that front means that the two main energy supports for commerce — diesel and jet fuel — are about to run seriously short in the short term, aggravated by Trump's restarting the war and military aviation having priority for jet fuel.
Little or very expensive transportation for food, fuel, and commodities will be causing us SERIOUS hurt, very soon. I've tried to lay this out at https://dickatlee.com/oil .
This comment is incorrect. It is a gross simplification to suggest that gasoline comes from sweet crude and distillate (diesel, jet fuel, etc.) comes from sour crude. In fact all crudes (light, heavy, sweet, sour and various blends) can be refined into gasoline and distillate, but it’s true that the light, sweet crudes have a smaller distillate cut. American currently imports about six million barrels of heavy and/or sour crude and about 70% of that comes from Canada, which has no real ability to ship its crude anywhere other than the U.S. The U.S. exports well over a million barrels per day of distillate. If it were to lose the heavy/sour crude imports from countries other than Canada, the U.S. would still produce more than enough distillate for its own needs, but would reduce exports to other countries. In other words, there is almost no possibility of a petroleum product shortage in the U.S.A.
Yes, you can get diesel/aviation from sweet crude, but you have to have a refinery configured to do that. That reconfiguration can't be done short term, and the vast majority of U.S. refineries were built to handle sour crude rather than sweet, simply because it is more profitable. We can't turn on a dime.
The fact that the Energy Secretary decided on March 11 to start drawing significant sour crude from the SPR indicates that at least he disagrees with you about the impossibility of a petroleum product shortage in the U.S. Odd, also, that Trump signed the Iranian Memorandum of Understanding (which he hated, and immediately violated) a day after he declared that we would be running out of diesel/jet fuel in 4 weeks. His behavior since then hasn't been consistent with that, which isn't surprising, but he was definitely aware we have a problem. Sure, Canada supplies sour crude; I'm not aware of that 70% number, but if correct, what do you suppose the significance of losing 30% of our supply of diesel/jet fuel will be for a cascade in prices in this country?
Good luck with what will be coming down the road if you wish to remain blind to the physical reality. I'd rather do whatever I can to be prepared for it.
Carney PM of Canada is looking to build a pipeline to the west coast to ship crude to China etc. Some think that is great for Canada's economy. My concern is it is part of Carney's plan to weaken the US by depriving them of crude input to US refineries.
I’m no fan of Carney, but it would be a good thing for Canada to have alternate outlets for its crude oil. Carney and the government would have very little influence on where oil exports go. The producing companies decide who they sell production to. The problem today is that there is no means of getting any production growth to market, so companies are returning cash to shareholders via share buybacks rather than investing in growth. Additional pipelines to anywhere (USA, East Coast Canada or West Coast Canada) would be a welcome development.
Again, you’ve completely misrepresented the state of the industry. You don’t have to reconfigure a refinery in order to make distillate from sweet crude. Sweet crude refineries have always produced a range of products, including gasoline and distillate. Also your focus on sweet versus sour is misleading. A better characterization would be light versus heavy. Heavy and sour refining capacity was not built because it’s more profitable; it was built to accommodate the types of crude that were available. As refiners anticipated the decline of light, sweet crude (prior to the fracking revolution), they upgraded refineries to process heavier, sour crudes like those from the Canadian Oil Sands and Venezuela. Currently the US imports about 6 million barrels a day of heavy and/or sour crudes. 2/3 of that comes from Canada and they don’t really have any means of shipping the crude elsewhere so it has to go to the US. The US is currently a net exporter of distillates to the tune of 1.3 million barrels a day. In other words, even if no heavy and/or sour crude other than the Canadian crude were available to the US, US refiners would still produce more than enough distillate to meet our own needs. We’d simply have to reduce exports. There is no prospect of a shortage of petroleum products in the United States. If there’s a global shortage, our prices will rise because petroleum products are a commodity and the global market sets the price, but supply will not be an issue.
Johnson just put out an interesting detailed piece on heavy/sour crude refining:
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/how-does-a-refinery-built-to-process
Still wondering about the SPR draw-down with regards the non-shortage...
If that's the case, what was the motivation for instituting a policy of significant heavy/sour crude drawdown from the SPR, with attendant risk of loss of cavern integrity, if we have more than enough for our own needs?
The drawdowns from the SPR are not that significant. They are a fraction of what was drawn down by the Biden administration at the beginning of the Ukraine war, purely in order to dampen international oil pricing and its inflationary effects on U.S. fuel prices in advance of the midterm elections. I expect the modest drawdowns since the beginning of the Iraq war are to help smooth out the tiny percentage of US heavy oil imports that come from Iraq, Saudi, etc. Given that the U.S. is a net exporter of nearly 3 million barrels per day of petroleum products, there is no possibility of products running short if crude supply is marginally diminished. U.S. refiners would simply cut crude runs slightly and reduce product exports.
I know you hate Trump but I think your loathing pushes you to fear monger the coming apocalypse. Global energy production, supply, transportation and refining is much more resilient than the absolute SPR level.
Time will be the test, as we get the ultimate stress test here. It's baked in now. It's actually worse than the doctor portrays. Everything is now at "tank bottom", which means while the SAY the SPR still has 300 million barrels, they can't pump any more out without wrecking the equipment on the bottom sludge. So I expect shortages soon.
John doesn't hate Trump. John is rightly critical of Trump, especially since he promised no more endless wars. Trump lied, and that is a big problem. Confidence in leaders, especially presidents, is critical. Mr Trump seems to go out of his way to destroy voter confidence.
Technically, crude oil could surpass its high of $150.00 a barrel and reach into the mid-$200s. That would mean $10.00 a gallon for gasoline, and of course higher prices for all kinds of other petroleum products.
This is not fear mongering; it is reality. Iran is playing a long game of economic chaos for the world and especially in the Middle East. Few understand that when oil hit $6.50 a barrel during COVID, the producing nations borrowed heavily. People think the Middle East is flush with oil revenue, but when that revenue dries up, servicing debt becomes a critical issue. Iran is disrupting producers' ability to sell oil, which could cause a severe banking crisis and a sovereign debt default. Iranians are not simple-minded people; they are highly educated.
This war, started by Trump and Netanyahu, could lead to an economic disaster for the US. Each day it escalates to greater violence means Mr Trump is digging a hole that cannot be filled. Power alone does not win conflicts, as even General George Washington demonstrated in our Revolutionary War with Great Britain.
I am pretty sure that most war supporters, like yourself, would be very critical of President Obama or Biden for acting in the same manner as Mr Trump.
Nice try. You know nothing about me. Iran is a 50 year BAD actor. Their comeuppance is way overdue. The sooner they are off the world stage, the better for EVERYBODY, including their own citizens.
Let’s see. We over threw their duly elected leader in 1956/1957, and installed the Shah. How would you feel if another country did that to one of our presidents elected by the people? That caused the revolution in 1979. If we’d kept our noses out of their country, just as we would like others to stay out of ours, all of the turmoil of the last 50 years would have never happened.
"How would you feel if another country did that to one of our presidents elected by the people?"
Like when Israel assassinated JFK? I am still bitter about that.
That’s why our occupied government keeps the facts hidden from the madses. It’s also why Trump did not release “all information on the JFK assassination”, as he promised to do when he campaigned in 2016. When the time to unseal it came, he made sure that it was kept classified. He has a habit of promising things when campaigning, JFK assassination, ending the war in Ukraine, not getting us into other wars, etc., that he does not keep. That makes him just another lying politician that really does not give a hoot about the citizens.
Sounds good but I seriously doubt it. Iran has been acquisitive and domineering in their region of the world for millennia.
Iran didn’t invade other countries. We ate tones who invade other countries. And if you were unaware of the IS overthrowing Iran’s elected leader, then you are either too young to remember, or you drink the kool-aid the media has been putting out, for decades. How many jabs and boosters did you take? After all, the media never lies. Right?
So again, what would your response be to having other countries pushing their desires on the US? What would your response be if a foreign country had come in, say February of 2025 and thrown Trump out, and installed who they said you could have, instead? Because this is what the US did to Iran. Do you think we would have revolted, like the Iranians did in 1979?
There are a lot of bad actors. Does that mean the US should drop billions of dollars, have US military personnel killed and maimed, and destroy civilians?
There is no logic, no strategy- just bomb the bad guys. That strategy has never worked even once! We are still paying interest on WW 1 and WWII. Over half of our national debt is because of inane wars. These wars destroy nations and economies, and that's why our founders wanted no part of them.
Hate, despise, pick a word. He is happy to see Trump deposed and to fail to the detriment of all.
"...to the detriment of all."
You misspelled betterment.
Got your bicycle all tuned up? Been riding regularly?
Remember 1973-1974?
This should be worse.
He's not making it up.
Just facts.
I’ve enjoyed Mr. Leake’s writing over the last few years and often forwarded his columns to friends. However, as he’s become disenchanted with Trump, the quality of his writing seems to have declined. It’s difficult to take seriously an article that characterizes the current administration as “psychopathic clowns”. I’m looking for sober, insightful commentary from Mr. Leake. This hardly qualifies. Additionally, I find the very premise of the piece misguided. The United States is currently a net exporter of petroleum products. When you take into account crude imports from Canada, which have nowhere else to go, the US is also a net exporter of crude. This country will not “face a marked reduction of available fuel products” anytime soon. Petroleum products may become more expensive because the global market sets the price for commodities. However, they will remain plentiful as long as the US remains in a position of excess crude supply and excess refining capacity.
Precisely. It’s almost as if he is trying to present a strawman to the gullible.
If someone has Trump derangement syndrome it makes it clear that there's no point paying attention to what they say. They refer to current Administration is psychopathic clowns but the unnecessary drawdown and unwillingness to refill with cheaper oil under the bite in the magistration just passing by. If I see something by John Leake we know who we're dealing with.
I was going to write my own reply until I read yours...perfect summary. Leake has a severe case of TDS, when he should focus on what most readers are here for...
Maybe Leake should apply his research of repurposed drugs to curing TDS and he would benefit directly. It appears he is really using this platform for his own political opines... I take what he says as further proof that if he is as deranged as his writings, he doesn't belong anywhere near the research lab. When someone is this delusional, trust is lost across the board...
Occasionally, he publishes an insightful article, which is why I remain subscribed. But I agree with your broader point. One can't reason with someone whose identity is wrapped up in a deeply held opinion. They latch on to whatever reinforces what they already believe while dismissing anything that challenges it. It is the rare individual who fully embraces Socrates and Nietzsche's (to name but two) practice of challenging the beliefs of the self.
TDS is an extraordinarily effective psy-op because it bypasses logic and goes straight for fear and anxiety, the two emotions most easily exploited and most contagious among the herd. Articles like this shows me what the current fear propaganda is. But to see it, you first have to eat a elephant following a long chain of influence back to its source, one that has been shaping and steering public perception for a very long time.
Are there concerns? Yes. But worth noting is there is zero mention of Newsome's regulations causing the shutdowns of the refineries in Cali who deliver a fair portion of what our reserves consist of.
Instead he hyperventilates how our entire economy is permanently dependent on oil with no other options. It's the companion op that insists carbon emissions are an unavoidable death sentence, labels oil as a fossil fuel, and insists that man, not the sun or interstellar energies affect our climate. It stokes the fear and anxiety by "proving" the sky is falling, confirming their 'evilness' while claiming moral high ground.
There is no intellectual honesty here, for if there were, it would mention the other energy policies of this Admin and what opportunities/challenges they will bring.
A quick search on YT, or any search engine, for small modular nuclear reactors will give you an idea of what's unfolding. Our energy sector has been held back for decades by petroleum companies using eco-alarmist Luddites as their mouth pieces, to whom nuclear is a serious competitive threat. They've spent millions buying political influence and funding narratives about their "service" and "virtues".
Under Trump, modular reactor technology is poised to take over thanks to changes in regulations and innovations. Molten salt reactors (MSRs) and related micro-reactor design are only one part of the story, but they're an important one. There are other promising developments as well, such as Hyliion's KARNO generator, but I won't rattle on more than I already have. Anyone who's genuinely curious can dig and find all the dirt and hope they can handle.
I agree. Unfortunately it appears we're seeing a severe case of TDS.
Happy to hear John's arguments and concerns about non-medical issues. But referring to the Trump administration as "The psychopathic clowns who are currently running this country" just undermines readers' trust in what he has to say.
yes, ALL THANKS TO TRUMP, a billionaire carrying ONLY about himself, his family and 'special' friends, and NOT ABOUT YOU, the average citizen...
Obviously, your case of TDS is reaching epic proportions and is most likely incurable at this stage. When delusion is expressed like yours, the only hope is medical and psychological treatment for you. Make sure you get that 8th booster, it's ready for you!
I realize that you dislike Trump immensely, but I think you still need to point the finger at the prior administration. This article cites the governments' own data:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Fact-Checking-the-Biden-Administrations-SPR-Narrative.html
Yes, Trump's administration has drawn down on the SPR, but he inherited an extremely low inventory due primarily to the Biden administration's sale of huge quantities to Ukraine. Yes, we may be headed for a bumpy road, but US production is still ramping up (after being shut down, again under the prior administration). That said, I don't see a rosy picture, but I don't buy your gloom and doom either.
My .02 worth.
Elizabeth Falconer, FOrt Worth
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best I suppose. Go out and get some gas cans.
Pointless war with Iran. For perspective, ask the following question: how large would the petroleum reserve have to be if Iran had nukes and launched them against all the countries in the middle east that they have already attacked? Add in a nuclear retaliation by Israel and most of the middle eastern oil production capacity would be permanently removed.
One answer would be to niavely believe the IRG would use them only as a deterent. However, once a missle is launched there is no way to determine the type of warhead it carries, which is why Russia tells the US in advance when it launches an ICBM with conventional warheafs at Ukraine.
IMO Iran cannot be trusted or believed because of the Muslim Quran approved tactic of the righteousness of lying to advance Islam.
Dick Minnis removingthecataract.substack.com
Once you cross the use nuclear weapons threshold, the fallout, yes real fallout, will encircle the world, rain will destroy crops and water supplies, making survival impossible for most of the inhabitants. The cloud cover, like that of an erupting volcano will black out the sun causing the earth to cool rapidly. The best place to be in a nuclear war is under a direct hit, because you will eventually die from its effects, so dying in the initial blast will save you from all the suffering. Trump is no fool, the only real fear he has is nuclear war because he knows how it ends. One nuke in Iranian hands will be used to kill little satan and little satan will turn Iran into dust, and then Russia will be justified to use them in Ukraine and God help us all. Nuclear War and Iran getting a nuclear capability must never be allowed or we’re all doomed. Nuclear War will only take a matter of minutes to play out and it will be all over, maybe a few retaliatory strikes on autopilot from subs undersea, but all over in less than a few hours. And then the suffering begins. And this is what the goal of Iran has always been, to bring on Armageddon. If they wanted peace, they’ve had many off roads to this conflict, but each has been met with escalation not compromise. Nuclear use is total insanity!
100% agree John!
I pumped gas and diesel at the family business in NJ during the 1973 and 1979 crisis' and lines where backed up for miles.
Back then we had full service gas pumps, where the attendant also checked tire air pressure, checked engine oil and water, and cleaned the windshields. Maybe the shortage impacting pricing helped end full-service gas stations.
As I recall it was insurance driven. Insurance companies didn't like self serve gas bars. I rode bike in that era and always wanted to pump my own gas so the attendant didn't slop gas on my gas tank. They always cited insurance for why they wouldn't let me pump my own gas.
Us to Sandy. Great point.
The oil crisis allowed the Carter Administration to move aggressively to do the one thing all 20th century Presidents (save for two) cannot stop themselves from indulging in - expanding the size and reach of the Federal Government. By creating the Department of Energy, Carter/Schlesinger established a bureaucracy that required the US petroleum industry to distribute products based upon government fiat, thereby taking the market process the private firms relied upon completely out of the distribution process. Interstate highway stations were required to carry product for which there were few buyers, while metropolitan areas were choked. We have repeatedly relied upon government employees to take decisions based upon their interpretation of equity (or other metaphysical urges) that have nothing to do with reality. Government employees are government employees because there is no place for them in productive society.
I am involved in energy markets for 35 years and met with high level Energy people in many governments around the world. In 2001, before 911, I met with our DOE and told them they still don't have an energy policy and there needs to be a domestic energy policy. There is still not a real one today.
Well most Americans did not say one thing about all the gas and oil leaving our country for distant shores. It has been going on for decades. I wrote my senator about it..received a form letter back..which is bullshit. Now they are trying to get us to buy electric cars to offset the crisis that MAY occur. If y'all have any money..I recommend investing in solid bicycles and horses.
And "classic" autos with no spyware installed!
Yes to that! My auto mechanic wants me to keep my car because the new ones have engins that wear out quickly on certain terrains and the electrical systems are ridiculous to work on. Even with the plug in systems to show where the problem is.
And don’t think for a minute that any of these draw downs are for “we the people”. They are not, never will be. We have been selling oil to the Chinese since this war started, as well as to other countries. The decisions about drawing down the SPR are made by the powers that be for their own political purposes and money interests. None of it has anything to do with American drivers.
If I am reading this correctly, the US industrial food system is a major energy consumer mostly diesel for transport of inputs and products to converters then distributed nationwide. Add in airlines burning jet fuel, the next few months May show signs of shortages on store shelves. This 6-week war is now 6 months and not as promoted, more of a 13th century religious conflict than businessmen doing any deal.
Somebody says you can ignore reality, but you can't escape the consequences of ignoring reality.
"... As soon as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve draws down, thereby removing the buffer, this country will face a marked reduction of available fuel products,..."
Some people say, we produce more oil than any other nation.
Psychotic clowns, will be the ones, overseeing a complete draw down.
Trump isn't a clown. Ask Maduro or the IRGC leadership.
Implying a complete draw down is plausible, is fear porn, imo.
"The psychopathic clowns who are currently running this country are not telling us the truth . . ."
You could have just stopped there as a full report. Thanks for your work, your insight, and this article. 🌺
I agree with you, John Leake, that a catastrophic energy shock is inevitable. It has been planned by the folks that "print money out of thin air". Nothing new, same old playbook. The BIS and all of the central bankers are gleeful at this intended turn of events, right on schedule. It is not Trump's doing. Those, lurking for years in the shadows, are turning up the pressure.