The 2002 U.S. Joint Forces Command war game found that a US carrier battle group in the Persian Gulf would suffer catastrophic destruction from asymmetrical attacks.
John, you act like you know what the latest ship defense tech is and that it is comparable to 2002. It's not. Yet again, John, you show you know nothing about what is going on in the Persian Gulf present day. Get your popcorn and watch, maybe you will learn.
This piece was a report of a situation that actually took place, the author made no other points ...he was simply demonstrating how the second exercise was designed to win...by cheating. In military terms thats treasonable. Falsehood when thousands of men's lives are on the line? Not clever ...just dangerous.
The US military has learned nothing since that exercise as it is learning incapable. This is demonstrated every single day as the US navy keeps its ships 500 kilometres from the Persian Gulf in order to avoid "laundry fires"
lol actually I'd say if they are keeping 500 km out then they did learn something...but it sounds like they haven't learned anything and are going to venture close enough to send about a $10B worth of boats and planes to the bottom of the Strait.
What John is explaining and you are not hearing is that power is not an automatic successful military strategy. I remind you that throughout history, nations that have been dripping with hubris over their overwhelming military power have lost.
Consider the American Revolution and the arrogant British Empire, an empire where the sun never set, which lost to an underfunded group of ragtag rebels.
You seem to forget that even Ansarallah kicked the USN's ass, and drove two carrier groups out of the Red Sea with empty magazines and missing several aircraft just last year.
Van Riper didn't have Iran's access to 50,000 Shahed drones, or hypersonics and he still gave a good account, something USA would do well to remember, now that all it's theatre radars have been destroyed and 13 of 17 regional bases destroyed.
One must ask, when was the last war the USA actually won? Didn’t the secretary of WAR just fire several generals? Were they against the current hubris and dangerous bluster that is certain to get thousands of American servicemen and women killed?
And with your screed, you reveal yourself to be a blind loyalists to trump and his insane terrorist rants. You rant about terrorists yet you can't - or won't- see the US government has morphed into the worst version of such.
Our media bears culpability, no doubt. But at some point thinking people open their eyes and ears to the real truth that is slowly sinking in.
Interpret the Schofield Bible as you wish, and assign all the virtuous bits to “ our side”. In the final analysis though, God is love, compassion and forgiveness and you'll never convince most people that he is a righteous warrior.
The other possibilities are that you're just willfully ignoring the truth because your 401k is looking so good now…. Or you're just insane with bloodlust like the coward trump.
John; Disingenuous at best... definite fear porn John. 2002 likely factored in an Iranian defense.
,
Tell us, who are the bogeymen we have to deal with in and around the Strait? Yes, the proxies will be ushered out of S. Lebanon ~80%+ of their total resistance - will be gone... shortly... and the other armed terrorist org's funded by Iran might show the whites of their eyes - they're screwed.
See how you are?
Stuff the fear porn where the sun doesn't shine - and get back to your strength - which I'll say is historic wars, conflicts and societal dynamics.... imo. You've been black pilled somehow - so has Tucker - just dropped his TCN subscription.
Combined with Dr. McCullough's merchandising journalism for his kits, got real old - His last few articles have returned to informative, targeted analysis... which I think most appreciate.
It's almost time to quit Focal Points - if you don't get your sh!t together. We can find Pielke's and Bulcher's work, elsewhere... you and Peter are marching to the world of insignificance... if you don't course correct, you'll lose your base. Your choice... to be an antisemite or a friend of our actual allies.
Nato has a real short shelf life, if/when we leave that 80 yr old gang of abuser's of American taxpayers. Holding back on help for air bases and their air pace, was a HUGE mistake for the UK, France and Spain - maybe there's a few more woke de-pop cult wanna be's - they spit in our face.
Head-long assault into Strait of Hormuz Iran in US military war games showed US could lose 20,000 soliders in one day! The war games were ended! We call on POTUS Trump again to NOT use our boots
on the ground, to take off-ramp, end this, declare a victory! to not go to Hormuz in a military way, find a negotiated settlement, peace deal, find a win win POTUS Trump, you can, protect our troops https://palexander.substack.com/p/head-long-assault-into-strait-of
We can call on POTUS I suppose. It's a waste of time though. He dances to one drummer and it ain't us. He is a slave to our "greatest ally". Even 9 figures from Adelson doesn't account for it. Why is he their slave? Be nice to know. We're along for the ride, unfortunately.
So, 24 years ago there was some controversy involving a Wargame exercise.
We hold the exercises many times a year. In the major command that I was in we held these exercises at least once a quarter, US only, with allies, allied wargames, etc. Just like everybody else. There was frequently controversy of one kind or another. But in every instance lessons were learned and applied. Operational Plans changed, tactics changed, new ideas were developed, weapons designs were implemented, etc.
Obviously those lessons included learning how to deal with rocket barrages, drones, fast attack boats, swarm attacks, etc. In fact, all of the asymmetric tactics that Ripper was suggesting were tried by the Iranians and defeated. That Ripper resigned in a fit of pique tarnishes his reputation and his credibility. True professionals don’t behave that way. Prima Donas do. True professionals sit down with other professionals and point out our vulnerabilities and how they think we can improve.
But what is John’s point in all this. It is essentially a tantrum. The meaning: “I don’t like this war. I don’t think we should be doing it. I don’t really have any thoughtful rejoinder to the threat of nuclear armed terrorists and no thought about how the alternatives would reasonably develop. But maybe if I throw enough brown stuff at the wall, something will stick.”
What resonates from the Millennium Challenge comparison is the unforgiving nature of confined waters. It exposed how even a sophisticated force can be stressed by asymmetric methods, and Hormuz remains the kind of environment where that lesson plays out fully.
I don't think you have to go back to 2002 to find a wargame scenario where ships in the Persian Gulf were sunk, John. I think every wargame exercise since then has resulted in US ships being attacked, which is why the USN moved its ships out of the Gulf before hostilities began.
Meryl Nass just put up a substack in which she asserted that the two US destroyers that entered the Gulf turned around after coming under surveillance by an Iranian drone. In any event, it is safe to say that they would have been able to bolt quickly in the event they got word that the talks collapsed and the cease-fire was off.
The Iranians version, propaganda perhaps, has the 2 destroyers turning back based on what, radio traffic recordings? CENTCOM says they didn’t and that the ships turned on their Automatic Identification System so their positions could be verified independently by others after they had passed through. I would tend to believe the US version but time will tell. Still very early in this phase.
Everyone is assuming that to blockade the Persian Gulf you have to be in the Persion Gulf. Rubbish from people who have no understanding of a Carrier Task Force's capabilities. Any tanker that pays Iran for the right of free passage can be intercepted and impounded well out of range of Iran's capability to interfere. There's no need to bring a carrier within range of Iran, that's why they have aircraft. Do you understand the concept of standoff capability to project force?
As an aside, I see alot of comments hoping that the US will fail to get Iran to give up their nuclear ambitions whether by negotiations or force. Some of these same writers would blame Trump if the US walked away and Iran nuked Israel in the future. Only two points of view acceptable on Iran having Nukes: either a MAD deterent or a way to destroy their sworn enemy Israel. I believe the latter is more likely,.
You need to step away from the AI and simply take time to observe Trump. He may not bat 1.000--who does?--but he is the best at what he is doing, and he has good reasons for it.
May want to keep in mind: IRGC has been playing for time, and one of their asymmetric tactics is inducing popular protest against the strait closure due to high cost impacts to commerce. Their belief is that the hue and cry will be too much for Trump's ears. Your joining in on the extreme criticism of Trump is supportive of their tactic. You know that, but you persist.
Iran turned around 2 US Arleigh Burke class Destroyers, during the "negotiations", yesterday... So I'm guessing someone else remembers what that war game taught us ...
This essay is puzzling. Historically, there are illustrations showing both outcomes--sometimes the empire wins, sometimes not. If the Big Powers always lose to guerrillas (or similar), then should Red Cloud have fought till he was dead? Why did Judea's many justified revolts end with Vespasian planting a forest of crucified Jews around Jerusalem? Why didn't Powhatan II's clever starvation plan rid Virginia of English? How could Boadicea's 200,000 brave Brittonic tribesmen burn Londinium and drive out the Romans, yet end in failure on a Midlands plain? Why did the Overmountain Men (including my 2 ggfathers) fight like Indians up the hill of King's Mountain, win against Ferguson's British forces, but yet go home to FARM instead of killing every Tory in sight?
Historical examples aside, what are our options? For nearly 50 years the Iranians have become more antagonistic, more radical, more dangerous, and more threatening. The treatment of dissidents and women has been appalling. The disrespect shown by the elite IRGC towards the Artesh tells us that this is like North Korea: the favorites live in Pyongyang, the slaves (workers) elsewhere. The Iranians have killed many through their satellite groups (Hamas, etc.) and they continue to threaten the West.
Believing Iranian leaders will somehow be converted to peace and lovingkindness is completely unrealistic. So-- shall we wait till NYC is bombed? Should we just give up now --all the women order their hijabs, the men their prayer rugs, and begin learning Arabic? Or shall we try to prevent the IRGC from becoming richer by Strait Piracy?
Slavery is the most common element in recorded history. We don't have it. We don't live in it. Let's keep it that way.
The USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) and USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121), both Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, attempted to transit the strategic waterway but were intercepted and forced to retreat by Iranian naval forces.
The destroyers were only a few minutes away from complete destruction after Iranian cruise missiles locked onto the vessel and attack drones were deployed.
John, you act like you know what the latest ship defense tech is and that it is comparable to 2002. It's not. Yet again, John, you show you know nothing about what is going on in the Persian Gulf present day. Get your popcorn and watch, maybe you will learn.
This piece was a report of a situation that actually took place, the author made no other points ...he was simply demonstrating how the second exercise was designed to win...by cheating. In military terms thats treasonable. Falsehood when thousands of men's lives are on the line? Not clever ...just dangerous.
he also made the point that Iran will use asymmetric warfare and refuse to fight on U.S. terms.
The US military has learned nothing since that exercise as it is learning incapable. This is demonstrated every single day as the US navy keeps its ships 500 kilometres from the Persian Gulf in order to avoid "laundry fires"
lol actually I'd say if they are keeping 500 km out then they did learn something...but it sounds like they haven't learned anything and are going to venture close enough to send about a $10B worth of boats and planes to the bottom of the Strait.
What John is explaining and you are not hearing is that power is not an automatic successful military strategy. I remind you that throughout history, nations that have been dripping with hubris over their overwhelming military power have lost.
Consider the American Revolution and the arrogant British Empire, an empire where the sun never set, which lost to an underfunded group of ragtag rebels.
Or in a more modern setting, Afghanistan.
Hubris and bragging isn't a good strategy either.
You seem to forget that even Ansarallah kicked the USN's ass, and drove two carrier groups out of the Red Sea with empty magazines and missing several aircraft just last year.
Van Riper didn't have Iran's access to 50,000 Shahed drones, or hypersonics and he still gave a good account, something USA would do well to remember, now that all it's theatre radars have been destroyed and 13 of 17 regional bases destroyed.
Dear Brad, you are the kind of person General van Rioer beat.
One must ask, when was the last war the USA actually won? Didn’t the secretary of WAR just fire several generals? Were they against the current hubris and dangerous bluster that is certain to get thousands of American servicemen and women killed?
Let's not forget Reagan's ground-breaking invasion of Grenada!
Venezuela, Trump won in 1 day. It makes a difference when one wages WAR and not Defense. John is used observing Defense.
Praying for God's wisdom and guidance for Trump and for peace and fairness for all countries involved.
Yeah, when you live in a world of stacking the deck in ones favor like Trump's is then a wake up call is just over the horizon waiting.
The Zionists just managed to disrupt the ´peace ´ talks with Iran and are planning further assassinations according to
Pakistan sources and they continue to bombarde Lebanon’
Trump has lost it and Netanyahu should be on a hit list .
How long will this craziness continue when we all know who the real culprits are!!!!!
Don’t know what you te talking about ! I’m not a Trump or Netanyahu zealot , so you haven’t understood what I wrote
You are clearly the enemy with your scree!! You decry assassinations of your fav terrorist group yet clamor for it.
You are a culprit, look into those blacks eyes from….., quite the zealot you are, floundering about.
And with your screed, you reveal yourself to be a blind loyalists to trump and his insane terrorist rants. You rant about terrorists yet you can't - or won't- see the US government has morphed into the worst version of such.
Our media bears culpability, no doubt. But at some point thinking people open their eyes and ears to the real truth that is slowly sinking in.
Interpret the Schofield Bible as you wish, and assign all the virtuous bits to “ our side”. In the final analysis though, God is love, compassion and forgiveness and you'll never convince most people that he is a righteous warrior.
The other possibilities are that you're just willfully ignoring the truth because your 401k is looking so good now…. Or you're just insane with bloodlust like the coward trump.
Looking for zealots? First look in the mirror.
Peace now!
Thank you I don’t understand a word
John; Disingenuous at best... definite fear porn John. 2002 likely factored in an Iranian defense.
,
Tell us, who are the bogeymen we have to deal with in and around the Strait? Yes, the proxies will be ushered out of S. Lebanon ~80%+ of their total resistance - will be gone... shortly... and the other armed terrorist org's funded by Iran might show the whites of their eyes - they're screwed.
See how you are?
Stuff the fear porn where the sun doesn't shine - and get back to your strength - which I'll say is historic wars, conflicts and societal dynamics.... imo. You've been black pilled somehow - so has Tucker - just dropped his TCN subscription.
Combined with Dr. McCullough's merchandising journalism for his kits, got real old - His last few articles have returned to informative, targeted analysis... which I think most appreciate.
It's almost time to quit Focal Points - if you don't get your sh!t together. We can find Pielke's and Bulcher's work, elsewhere... you and Peter are marching to the world of insignificance... if you don't course correct, you'll lose your base. Your choice... to be an antisemite or a friend of our actual allies.
Nato has a real short shelf life, if/when we leave that 80 yr old gang of abuser's of American taxpayers. Holding back on help for air bases and their air pace, was a HUGE mistake for the UK, France and Spain - maybe there's a few more woke de-pop cult wanna be's - they spit in our face.
excellent work John. I did a stack on this prior so I paste it here...https://palexander.substack.com/p/head-long-assault-into-strait-of
Head-long assault into Strait of Hormuz Iran in US military war games showed US could lose 20,000 soliders in one day! The war games were ended! We call on POTUS Trump again to NOT use our boots
on the ground, to take off-ramp, end this, declare a victory! to not go to Hormuz in a military way, find a negotiated settlement, peace deal, find a win win POTUS Trump, you can, protect our troops https://palexander.substack.com/p/head-long-assault-into-strait-of
We can call on POTUS I suppose. It's a waste of time though. He dances to one drummer and it ain't us. He is a slave to our "greatest ally". Even 9 figures from Adelson doesn't account for it. Why is he their slave? Be nice to know. We're along for the ride, unfortunately.
So, 24 years ago there was some controversy involving a Wargame exercise.
We hold the exercises many times a year. In the major command that I was in we held these exercises at least once a quarter, US only, with allies, allied wargames, etc. Just like everybody else. There was frequently controversy of one kind or another. But in every instance lessons were learned and applied. Operational Plans changed, tactics changed, new ideas were developed, weapons designs were implemented, etc.
Obviously those lessons included learning how to deal with rocket barrages, drones, fast attack boats, swarm attacks, etc. In fact, all of the asymmetric tactics that Ripper was suggesting were tried by the Iranians and defeated. That Ripper resigned in a fit of pique tarnishes his reputation and his credibility. True professionals don’t behave that way. Prima Donas do. True professionals sit down with other professionals and point out our vulnerabilities and how they think we can improve.
But what is John’s point in all this. It is essentially a tantrum. The meaning: “I don’t like this war. I don’t think we should be doing it. I don’t really have any thoughtful rejoinder to the threat of nuclear armed terrorists and no thought about how the alternatives would reasonably develop. But maybe if I throw enough brown stuff at the wall, something will stick.”
What resonates from the Millennium Challenge comparison is the unforgiving nature of confined waters. It exposed how even a sophisticated force can be stressed by asymmetric methods, and Hormuz remains the kind of environment where that lesson plays out fully.
https://cpldanusmcret764175.substack.com/p/lieutenant-general-van-ripers-millennium?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=ohc7t
Semper Fi
Prayers for all in control.
Mine go to the guys on the line. They don't have shares in Northrop.
mine too. And the innocent civilians.
I don't think you have to go back to 2002 to find a wargame scenario where ships in the Persian Gulf were sunk, John. I think every wargame exercise since then has resulted in US ships being attacked, which is why the USN moved its ships out of the Gulf before hostilities began.
Meryl Nass just put up a substack in which she asserted that the two US destroyers that entered the Gulf turned around after coming under surveillance by an Iranian drone. In any event, it is safe to say that they would have been able to bolt quickly in the event they got word that the talks collapsed and the cease-fire was off.
The Iranians version, propaganda perhaps, has the 2 destroyers turning back based on what, radio traffic recordings? CENTCOM says they didn’t and that the ships turned on their Automatic Identification System so their positions could be verified independently by others after they had passed through. I would tend to believe the US version but time will tell. Still very early in this phase.
Dick Minnis
removingthecataract.substack.com
we did not know this, thank you
Everyone is assuming that to blockade the Persian Gulf you have to be in the Persion Gulf. Rubbish from people who have no understanding of a Carrier Task Force's capabilities. Any tanker that pays Iran for the right of free passage can be intercepted and impounded well out of range of Iran's capability to interfere. There's no need to bring a carrier within range of Iran, that's why they have aircraft. Do you understand the concept of standoff capability to project force?
As an aside, I see alot of comments hoping that the US will fail to get Iran to give up their nuclear ambitions whether by negotiations or force. Some of these same writers would blame Trump if the US walked away and Iran nuked Israel in the future. Only two points of view acceptable on Iran having Nukes: either a MAD deterent or a way to destroy their sworn enemy Israel. I believe the latter is more likely,.
Dick Minnis
removingthecataract.substack.com
You need to step away from the AI and simply take time to observe Trump. He may not bat 1.000--who does?--but he is the best at what he is doing, and he has good reasons for it.
May want to keep in mind: IRGC has been playing for time, and one of their asymmetric tactics is inducing popular protest against the strait closure due to high cost impacts to commerce. Their belief is that the hue and cry will be too much for Trump's ears. Your joining in on the extreme criticism of Trump is supportive of their tactic. You know that, but you persist.
Iran turned around 2 US Arleigh Burke class Destroyers, during the "negotiations", yesterday... So I'm guessing someone else remembers what that war game taught us ...
This essay is puzzling. Historically, there are illustrations showing both outcomes--sometimes the empire wins, sometimes not. If the Big Powers always lose to guerrillas (or similar), then should Red Cloud have fought till he was dead? Why did Judea's many justified revolts end with Vespasian planting a forest of crucified Jews around Jerusalem? Why didn't Powhatan II's clever starvation plan rid Virginia of English? How could Boadicea's 200,000 brave Brittonic tribesmen burn Londinium and drive out the Romans, yet end in failure on a Midlands plain? Why did the Overmountain Men (including my 2 ggfathers) fight like Indians up the hill of King's Mountain, win against Ferguson's British forces, but yet go home to FARM instead of killing every Tory in sight?
Historical examples aside, what are our options? For nearly 50 years the Iranians have become more antagonistic, more radical, more dangerous, and more threatening. The treatment of dissidents and women has been appalling. The disrespect shown by the elite IRGC towards the Artesh tells us that this is like North Korea: the favorites live in Pyongyang, the slaves (workers) elsewhere. The Iranians have killed many through their satellite groups (Hamas, etc.) and they continue to threaten the West.
Believing Iranian leaders will somehow be converted to peace and lovingkindness is completely unrealistic. So-- shall we wait till NYC is bombed? Should we just give up now --all the women order their hijabs, the men their prayer rugs, and begin learning Arabic? Or shall we try to prevent the IRGC from becoming richer by Strait Piracy?
Slavery is the most common element in recorded history. We don't have it. We don't live in it. Let's keep it that way.
The USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) and USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121), both Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, attempted to transit the strategic waterway but were intercepted and forced to retreat by Iranian naval forces.
The destroyers were only a few minutes away from complete destruction after Iranian cruise missiles locked onto the vessel and attack drones were deployed.
https://seemorerocks.substack.com/p/irgc-navy-radio-communication-with