A few charts for your viewing pleasure.
The men who run this country strongly resemble an old high school buddy who—shortly after he started receiving large monthly distributions from a trust-fund—became an alcoholic with a severe cocaine habit. Hard reality struck when he lost control of his sports car in a drag race and drove through through a person’s house, almost killing the inhabitant and himself.
Severe inflation of energy and food and all the knock-on effects of unsustainable debt that can no longer be financed are coming, and it is very difficult to see how the world is going to avoid severe economic hardship and even starvation in some regions.
The disasters caused by totally mindless wars with no strategy will likely be greatly amplified by the Super El Nino that is developing in the Pacific. The precedents for how this phenomenon affects human civilization are clear.
2015–2016: Reached a peak of +2.75°C above average. It triggered global weather anomalies, massive marine heatwaves, and was nicknamed the “Godzilla El Niño” by NASA scientists.
1997–1998: Peaked at +2.40°C above average. This event caused severe weather worldwide, including widespread flooding and mudslides across California and parts of South America.
1982–1983: Reached +2.23°C above average. It was one of the most devastating weather events of the 20th century, causing billions of dollars in property damage and major climate-driven disasters across multiple continents.
I hope I will be proven wrong, but I fear that very hard times are in store for humanity. If history serves as any guide, the lunatics who hold power will probably escalate war in order to change the subject from the misery they have inflicted on mankind and either erase or restructure the unsustainable debt they have amassed with all of their insane policies and projects since 2001.
After all the exposure in recent years of the simulated reality that has been imposed on us from the Controligarchs using carefully crafted false narratives, some of which have been cultivated for many decades, I’m not sure I believe(any longer) the El Niño/La Nina storyline. Perhaps it is true, perhaps it isn’t.
We must all recognize that most of our so-called knowledge of science is based on Type II Knowledge. Type II Knowledge is defined as ostensible knowledge gained by listening to someone say something(or more often reading what they wrote) and simply choosing to believe it. This is not real knowledge. Real knowledge is Type One. Type I knowledge is gained by doing the work. A good example is a nurse friend of mine who recently retired after a 43 year career as an ICU nurse in a major metropolitan hospital. She is bursting with Type I knowledge regarding acute and critical patient care. During her career she had to deal with an endless stream of young doctors and nurses who came waltzing in to the ICU simply bursting with Type II knowledge.
Often her reaction and response went something like this: “You do that doc, and you will kill the patient”.
Inflation is monetary; it's issuance of more currency without concomitant production of goods. The current energy price rise is both temporary reduction in availability and speculation; it is not inflation as you traditionally understand it. Once supply chain resumes equilibirum, expect prices to drop significantly. It was only last year that oil was projected to be around $70-ish. Lay that place mat on the table as baseline global settled price and then ask why it would persist more than 1-2 yrs above 100.
Cost of living is energy availability. Short of BBB idiocy and Germany's autoimmolation, there was no impending shock or crisis.
You have badgered Trump mercilessly, but he has now brought Venezuela likely back from the Dark Ages and that could be an excellent cinderella story in a few years. Know any Venezuelans? They love what has happened and are hopeful of normalcy again. If so, western oil economies look to improve markedly long term.
Russia is likely going to fit hand in glove with a harmonious oil/LNG outcome in the upcoming years. OPEC has been reduced in potency. Iran has been gored, whether you see it or refute it. The Hormuz Choke has now been largely neutered for eternity, as planning and capital have been put into action to write it out of future global risk scenarios. That was a case of start-up risk; no one wanted to go through the fever of fixing that problem. Trump hit it head on, now there's fever...and it will break in due course, patient back up and on the playground someday with no more thoughts of the old illness.
Yes, US Govt is run by idiots. Yes, open borders and illegal voting is harmful. Yes, those are paths to ruin. But, if you follow Trump's lead, he is about the only postive US force in action today to ward off the bad and restore the good.
Best you join the team and root for your side rather than heckle them.