99 Comments
User's avatar
Philip's avatar

Sigh. And so the lack of strategic imagination continues in this post. No, we don't need to practice "mental gymnastics" to understand what Trump is doing in Iran (and Venezuela, Cuba, etc.) and how it is not his "breaking his promise" to avoid forever wars. We just need to grasp that Trump is not operating by the old playbook where America's only choices in dealing with adversaries are 1) decades of ineffective sanctions that accomplish nothing while we at the same time pretend like our enemies are operating in good faith, or 2) regime change, nation-building, boots on the ground, and forever wars. Trump is showing us a third way: limited use of force, economic pressure, followed by an invitation to cooperation and mutually beneficial economic relationships. Iran is the most difficult nut to crack, and we'll see how it goes in time, but it is assuredly not WWIII, based on the response (or lack thereof) of Russia, China, and even the U.N. Trump has already accomplished the unthinkable. Let the man work!

John Leake's avatar

Accomplished nothing? We haven't been at war with Iran until now, though we did equip Iraq with every nasty weapon under the sun, including biological and chemical weapons, to attack Iran for 8 years straight between 1980-88. Consider that, proxy wars aside (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan) we stayed out of a direct war with the Soviet Union between 1947 and 1991, when it collapsed due to internal and external pressures, and not US aerial bombardment Are you and your "full blown war is better than proxy skirmishes" going to sign up or urge your children to sign up for this one when it escalates and drags on?

CB's avatar
8hEdited

". . . we at the same time pretend like our enemies are operating in good faith . . . )

So Woodrow Wilson, the Dulles brothers, FDR, LBJ, Nixon, Kissinger, David Rockefeller, G. H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, G. W. Bush, John McCain, Obama, Hillary Clinton, Biden, et al. operated in good faith? Think the rest of the world thinks so? Trump has now made it plain he's one of them, enjoying praise from Hillary for his Iran policy while saying how much he likes Bill because Clinton understands Trump. They operated for Wall Street and its masters, not for us, and except for the time problem, they could all enjoy a good "swim" together, as B. J. Clinton, Ghislaine, and unidentified young women did, in Epstein's pool.

As to our enemies--I've never forgiven Iran for overthrowing our government in 1953 and stealing our oil, and never will. Death to those evil Persian bastards that have always hated us for no reason!!!

Scott Kay's avatar

I'm about as CONSERVATIVE as they come. Voted for Trump 3 times only to come to the conclusion that there is no escape through our current gov't system. Every option the voters are offered are already under complete control via the central control matrix (Epstein et. al.). And *ALL* these wars are managed by central figures who have control systems in place on both sides. And the plan is to make it profitable for them and usher both sides into their "Hegelian dialectic" pre-planned " solutions (which are even more profitable and provide better centralized control).

DBC's avatar

"Trump has now made it plain he's one of them,"

How so?

cg's avatar

Leake is an idiot with stale ideas and no ability to adapt. Trump's SMO is a necessary piece of work, a gift to the world and the Iranian people.

For informative pieces on the actual military strategy engineered for this operation, see this excellent channel:

https://www.youtube.com/@NavyDecoded

Clive MacDonald's avatar

An 'actual military strategy' that didn't foresee the closure of the Straits of Hormuz?

Paul Ashley's avatar

Way back the 1980s

Trump spoke about the importance that the strait and Kharg Island in particular would play in a confrontation with Iran. They knew. None of us know the plan. We're just armchair quarterbacking.

cg's avatar

Of course not, don’t be silly. The Persian Gulf is a trap.

The only reason any of us even read this screed is that Leake is still riding the COVID-19 coattails of Dr. McCullough.

Richard Kudrna's avatar

I think anyone could have predicted that. I am stunned how that tanker was completely unprotected. Disappointed that trumps childish nature blocked USA from attaining Ukrainian expertise in anti drone technology. At least UAE and others are availing themselves.

Antonia Lhamo's avatar

wtf, "a gift" ONLY to the military industrial complex! I would guess the Iranian people would just as soon NOT BE BOMBED nor have their children's schools bombed. Iran has resources and it leadership and people have integrity, this is intolerable to the West/ Israel so with the hearty wishes and mighty greed of the Epstein Class/mic: DESTROY Iran. That is it. Destroying one country after another is NOT OUR RIGHT and we voted for the PEACE candidate.......yikes!

cg's avatar

Uh huh. Please leave my country.

Antonia Lhamo's avatar

happy to know you are not vaxxed, now to understand that this is MY country and your country. i grew up on a farm in Idaho, farm girls know what they are talking about!

Steveo's avatar

If only the diplomats, and politicians joined the battlefield.

reality speaks's avatar

The same people that lied us into Iraq and Afghanistan are there advising Trump. The military only knows how to blow shit up. It has no concept as to the consequences and there is no day 2 plan. Trump is on the verge of a political disaster for the Republican Party

SteelJ's avatar

You might have it backwards. The military, or at least some key figures, warned against this war. They tend to be more rational in their assessments than political zealots. Some of them anyway.

reality speaks's avatar

Didn’t mean to imply it was the military. It’s the so called experts that every President has to rely on. The ones that got us into the other mistakes have gotten us into this one. It’s military It’s the intelligence agencies it’s the state department.

sandy's avatar

John, your analysis of the pre-war negotiations is very thoughtful and interesting. All sincere perspectives should be respected. Recommend you read the Iran war analysis on the Coffee and Covid Substack by Jeff Childers for another perspective on what is happening and what to expect.

John Leake's avatar

I regularly read Jeff's column and admire his writing. Sadly, I am unable to share his optimistic assessment that the US will enjoy a swift victory in this war.

sandy's avatar

I hope Childers is correct but I am unsure. I give it a total of about 5 weeks from the start of the war. If we are not out of it by then, I will share your pessimism.

URsomoney's avatar

I like Jeff Childers but he’s a little too rahrah for Trump who is not calling the shots (nor is Netanyahu). His excusing himself from the negotiations is a big tell. Shakespeare (or whoever wrote under the surname of an uneducated pauper) was correct - “all the world is a stage”. Here is some unforgotten Iran, Israel, US history.

https://off-guardian.org/2026/03/06/a-history-in-4-psy-ops-has-iran-has-always-been-a-member-of-the-club/

SteelJ's avatar
6hEdited

Jeff is a little too rahrah for Trump? That's like saying Lindsay Graham is a little too rahrah for war. His TAW (Trump always wins) and "let the man work" bs has become nauseating. We'll see how his work on the Iran issue works out. Most likely we've guaranteed generations of even greater hatred towards us and the only way to stay safe from retaliation will be endless strikes to try to keep their rockets and drones to "acceptable" levels. They ain't forgetting what we've done, ever.

URsomoney's avatar

I was trying to be nice to someone who still is a fan of his c&c. I stopped reading awhile ago.

DBC's avatar

Always seems, that Trump allows his team to sort through basics, frame actionable items, etc.. he then swoops in to do a deal.

When Iran bragged about having enough Uranium to build 11 nukes, they exposed their real intent... to come back fighting. And they proved it in early March, scatter shooting all their neighbors and our bases.

Hoping good, on the Iranian public. My guess, they'll need more help than we'd planned. The citizenry is unarmed.

Lilo Bauer-Freitag's avatar

The public you are talking about will not like us much longer, if we make it impossible for them to live. How many are already displaced?

evergreen's avatar

The public you are describing has already stepped up and is providing reports and coordinates of IRGC check points...which the Forces are blowing up.

Is that evidence of distaste or voraciousness?

SteelJ's avatar

Iran proved it by shooting back? You gotta be kidding.

DBC's avatar

You've got to be kidding.

"...scatter shooting all their neighbors and our bases...."

They've made enemies everywhere - except Russia and China.

You are kidding, right?

Lilo Bauer-Freitag's avatar

How long will this last? When their losses become too great, this can turn.

evergreen's avatar

The castle has been raided by armed brigands and the king and his knights are fighting them off.

The queen says, "You know, anyone who may be listening, that I Detest--detest--violence! King, how much longer will this take?!"

DBC's avatar

I suspect that the age group, that remembers a more free - less tyrannical Iran, will have lasting assistance...power. The younger would be the first to submit, I'd guess.

Hope they're arming the citizens.

evergreen's avatar

How do you know the US hasn't planned for that eventuality? Likely a half dozen outcomes have been trialed and have varying degrees of Go Buttons.

DBC's avatar

Never said they hadn't.

That's why I said, 'my guess'.... also why you used the word, 'likely'.

evergreen's avatar

Understood. The "likely" is in re the half dozen count. Guaranteed they have a plan to give substantial support once the popular surge begins.

Lilo Bauer-Freitag's avatar

What if this "popular surge" never happens?

DBC's avatar

finger snaps! I expect, you're right

Paul R's avatar

John. Perhaps you should come to Israel, see what it's like here in the ground, reevaluate your arm chair positions

Mothertrucker's avatar

Well Paul how about you tell us what’s going on on the ground over there as we are not televising this war as we did the “Shock and Awe” Iraq invasion and we cannot trust our government to tell us the truth. So all we got is mainstream media reporting what they’re told to and retired military colonels and generals speculating on podcasts. So enlighten us if you will please.

Paul R's avatar

Plenty of substance doing that. Check out Tell Aviv Dust, or Lens and Land: dispatches from Israel. Both good writers

William DeCat's avatar

Blinken.... Seriously!? "Very Muscular" he says... while they are flying literally planeloads of CASH into IRAN.... only to be followed by Oct. 7, never ending "just a minute" and we'll be good and never ending "Death to America" ... I / We agree with you this looks way too much like a broken promise of no new foreign wars.... but Our Borders, Drugs, Venezuela, Cuba; Russia/China in Ukraine (our our former President Joe BuyDem and his Great Artist Son of Traitor going into business with Billionaire Chris Heinz; step-Son of John Kerry... Going into business WITH the STATE of China via Rosemont-Seneca/Bohai Capital... a story just forgotten)... if the stars align - this could be the once in a lifetime opportunity to behead Iran and its proxies.... Perhaps that is wishful thinking. So Yes - No new wars. But it will take a lot more than Blinken or more alleged promises from Iran via minister from Oman, to convince that Trump does not want a legacy of the "Golden Age" in his mind... he's not Isreal's or someone else's pawn; he still appears to be USA first.... say that's naive... it may be - but if that is the case, then the truth is that one party IS no better than the other.... and this is all just smoke and mirrors to distract from the ONE (internal) war NO ONE can seem to solve: $40 Trillion in Debt... and everyone just wants MORE. Best wishes to US all!

Daniel Williams's avatar

Well said. Like Celente says, "When all else fails they take you to war". This has been long planned and will be escalating more than anyone can imagine. There's people to kill and money to be made.

https://reactionaryobservationalist.substack.com/p/war-data-points-31426-things-are

Rick  Batross's avatar

Yes. The most viable and powerful "party" is 'The War Party'. Soon that "party"will give 'our' pentagon what they demand.- Domestic S urveillance AND autonomous War Drones. The Pentagon then may turn around and use those powers against we the people - say,if we don't want to accept another government mandated vaccine,or if we don't want to purchase some over priced item,or if we don't want to say,"Yes" to the PTB's demands. Those who 'see' will cloak their lives until their hour that is to come.

DawnieR's avatar

The USSA has NO ACTUAL Diplomats; they've gone extinct!

So we have 'REAL ESTATE AGENTS' (Witkoff and Kushner) pretending to be 'Diplomats.....

and AmeriKans ACCEPT this BS!

PEDO demon-lizard Kushner, an Iz-ra-HELLi operative, is TRAITOR Trump, the demon-PEDO, Iz-ra-HELLi HANDLER!! (just in case 'you' haven't figured it out, yet!)

So, the USSA has LITERALLY gone to (an UNLAWFUL) WAR.....BECAUSE OF......two REAL ESTATE AGENTS!!

Let that SINK IN, AmeriKa!!

Stuffysays's avatar

Again, another interesting article. And, again, I see some of the comments here are insisting that Trump is leading us all into a golden future by destroying other countries. I also am struggling to see how Trump is sticking to his promise about not leading the USA (and, by implication, the whole of the western world) into yet more endless wars in countries that are none of his business. If the western countries withdrew from the non-western ones and stopped bullying them into doing what we want maybe they would leave us alone too. Radical idea, I know, but surely worth a try rather than simply killing people and destroying their countries. The only hope that this will not turn into a full-blown world war is that the young men of the western world are not as gullible as their predecessors and are certainly not fit and fearsome enough to take on countries with serious armies full of focused and macho men. (I'm ignoring the nuclear elephant that is always in the room)

Peter W Allen's avatar

John, once again, brilliant in its clarity and simplicity and its truth. Courageous discourse indeed. You know and I we have all been conned by Trump, et al. He recognized Jerusalem as Capital of Israel against all knowledge of local affairs. His military build up in the region over the last year, was a fait acompli for war, zero criticiism of the Gazan attrocities (a HOLOCAUST BY any definition, comparable to Hitler when you compare ratio of populations, Jews to germans, Gazans slaughtered to Gazans) There never was a negotiation, merely tactics to make war more successful. Outside of the Kushner/Ivanka effect, the AIPAC effect, I just do not understand the hold the Zionists have on Trump that he would destroy his political career/legacy ,which we all know he has, and demolish our faith in his word with this utterly idiotic war for Zionist hegemony.Was he too duped? by Bibi the slaughterer? No doubt I now think, destroying Iran has been his primary ambition since 2016. Why else scuttle the Nuclear accords with Iran in his first term. We now know the Venezuela kidnapping and nation toppling was simply a prelude and softening up of our minds to his ultimate goal, Israel's uncontested, nuclear powered, total control of the mid east.

William DeCat's avatar

Looking back to 2016? And blaming Israel for Trumps decisions? This bit from 1988 (1988 interview, reviewed in 2017 article) seems to betray anything the short term may imply:

"He is beginning now to sound approximately like a politician. What would his platform be? ‘Respect,’ he says and pauses heavily. ‘Respect.’ He sounds like the Godfather. ‘We’re a second rate economic power, a debtor nation. We’re getting kicked around.’ I try to imagine the kind of deals he would make with Gorbachev, and fail. I choose an issue. What would he do about Iran, for instance? ‘I’d be harsh on Iran. They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look a bunch of fools. One bullet shot at one of our men or ships and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it. Iran can’t even beat Iraq, yet they push the United States around. It’d be good for the world to take them on.’

He is enough of a politician to be polite about George Bush. He says, politely, that the man is not such a wimp as he’s made out. Bush has been unfairly traduced by the media. But he says it in a way that makes it plain Bush is still a wimp. Could Trump possibly make it to the White House? Of course not, says everyone who knows anything about American politics. It’s a bad joke. But then Trump has often done what can’t be done and if the White House can take a senile movie star, why not a casino operator?"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/12/polly-toynbee-1988-interview-donald-trump?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Dan Star's avatar

Given the Iran War Tempo and NDAA just-passed included auto draft registration for inhabitants 18-26. So if this is going to WW3 we should see the Draft start within a month or so.

rtko's avatar

What I’d like to see.

An end to AIPAC.

No dual citizenship people working in the U.S. Government.

Americans waking up and rejecting politicians who take money from foreign governments or their proxies.

evergreen's avatar

Presently the Strait is a no-go zone holding up international commerce. Nations are moved to negotiate and release strategic petroleum reserves, and scarcity/uncertainty shocks are rippling through economies. On top of that, Iran is destroying uninvolved third party tankers.

Who does that? Really, who does that? That is hostage taking and terrorism in the first degree. That animal lash out has been the controlling entity in Iran.

Set aside all other prior discussions, theses, arguments pro/con: what entity does this, and what should the world's actors say/do about it?

Richard Kudrna's avatar

Carefully break the RG. Keep hammering every aspect of their logistics until weak enough to encourage the ordinary people to attack.

This will take time. Those remote outposts in east Iran are now or soon to be un reachable by air, and the roads are long. Cut them off, drop mines, no in no out. It will get lonely. Etc.

Alan's avatar

It seems like most of the world is likely tired of Iran's constant efforts at destabilization and want something done about it. Even Russia and China.

United Nations Security Council Resolution 2817 (2026) was adopted on March 11, 2026, by a vote of 13 in favor, 0 against, and 2 abstentions (China and Russia). The resolution condemns Iran’s “egregious attacks” against its regional neighbors—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan—as a breach of international law and a serious threat to international peace and security. It demands the immediate cessation of all attacks by Iran, including strikes on civilian infrastructure and attempts to obstruct maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al Mandeb.

Richard Kudrna's avatar

The Republican Guard is led by fanatics not motivated by reason. The damage to the global economy by funding Yemen Shia groups, Lebanese and Afghan militias is significant. The clear danger of nuclear weapons in the hands of fanatical groups, who do not fear death, I agree creeps into Chinese and Russian awareness.